Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 200217 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
917 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

Light rain showers continue to linger over the central portion of
the CWA. Have adjusted pops to fit the current situation, and
expect the precipitation to slowly drift eastward overnight. No
changes made to winds or temperatures at this time.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 335 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

Main upper level low pressure trough to our west showing up real
well on satellite late this afternoon. Strong upper divergence in
advance of the trough was bringing a large area of showers to
central and north central SD. With some surface heating this
afternoon, there was also some instability showers/maybe weak
thunderstorms in advance of the main rain shield. This upper trough
will continue to move east through tonight across SD and into MN by
Saturday morning. Therefore, expect the rain to move east across the
rest of the cwa through the night. Have increased pops quite a bit
across the region. The models then all show another weak short wave
trough coming across the region from the northwest Saturday into
early Saturday evening. The lift from this trough along with surface
heating instability in the cool air should bring redevelopment of
scattered showers and isolated storms across mainly our eastern cwa
on Saturday. The rest of the period looks to be dry from Saturday
night through Sunday night as upper level high pressure builds over
the region.

At the surface, Canadian high pressure will continue to build into
the region through Saturday night. Highs on Saturday will be fall-
like and only in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Saturday night will
be a cool night under the surface high pressure with mostly clear
skies and light winds. Expect lows mostly in the 40s. Warmer air
will return on Sunday as winds become south to southwest behind the
retreating high. Under sunny skies, temperatures are expected to
warm into the 70s and lower 80s. Sunday night will remain mostly
clear with lows mainly in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

Ridging aloft and southerly sfc flow ahead of an approaching cold
front will bump temperatures into the 80s and 90s on Monday and
Tuesday. Behind the cold front on Tuesday evening, cooler air will
be reinforced by an upper trough that lingers over the northern
plains through Friday. Highs will only top out in the 70s during the
latter part of the work week.

Other than some shower and thunderstorm potential with the cold
frontal passage late Tuesday into early Wednesday, conditions are
looking fairly dry until perhaps Friday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

Light rain showers will slide across the CWA this evening and into
the early overnight hours. At this time, conditions are expected
to remain VFR with the rain, and through the entire TAF period.

&&


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Parkin



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