Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 240216 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
916 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Issued at 914 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Main area of rain become situated over the eastern part of the
area, with just some scattered showers over the west. Have
adjusted POPs for the next couple of hours for now as it does look
like a more solid area of rain will move back over the west after
midnight. No changes made to winds or temperatures at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

The forecast continues to look quite wet through the period. Deep
and strong western conus trof will continue to move only slowly east
through the period. Currently a surface front extends from central
Minnesota, southwest into northeast Nebraska. As a decent s/w
lifts northeast out of the upper trof tnt, a developing LLJ will
likely push that surface boundary back north, and in the process
deliver additional moisture above the boundary layer back north
into the CWA. A line of storms on the backside of the boundary
will continue to develop southwest and hook up with the area of
showers/storms over western Nebraska. This entire area will
build/move north into the Missouri and James River valleys this
evening and overnight, lingering into Sunday morning. Severe
weather risk looks fairly minimal given lack of decent cape, but
shear is still moderate to strong through tonight in the east,
thus a couple strong to severe storms are possible over that
region. There will likely be some areas that get pretty hefty
rains given the amount of available moisture, and chance of
repeated rain over the same locations. PWATs approaching 1.75
inches this time of year is pretty significant. By Sunday
afternoon and evening the front should start getting shoved east,
taking the heaviest rains to the east and south of the forecast
area. With plenty of clouds and pcpn around, tnt`s lows will be
relatively mild. But Sunday`s highs will be on the cool side given
all the clouds and rain.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

It appears that by the time we get to Sunday night/Monday, much of
the rain will begin to taper off and eventually be confined to the
far southeast CWA. We then will have to await the approach of the
main upper low Monday night into Tuesday before precip chances ramp
back up again - mainly for eastern areas. Once the upper low finally
pulls out of the area by Tuesday evening, models indicate a mainly
dry pattern for the next several days.

As for temperatures, cool conditions will continue for Monday and
Tuesday, with signs of a modest warm up more towards seasonal norms
by Wednesday and Thursday. For overnight lows, the potentially
coolest period may be Tuesday night. Models show clouds departing
with a surface high in place. We may be able to start going a bit
cooler than SuperBlend if this trend continues.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across parts of the area
tonight and into the day Sunday. IFR/MVFR cigs will be in place
throughout the TAF period, along with occasional periods of MVFR
vsbys in rain and fog.




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