819
FNUS73 KABR 081054
FWSABR

Spot Forecast for Bob Hodgins GPA RX...SD GFP
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
554 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1400 CDT on May 08.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Low pressure will meander around the region today.
By 3 pm, however, a weak low sets up around the burn site and
could be the focus point for strong to severe thunderstorms with
large hail and strong, gusty winds through mid evening. While the
severe threat diminishes this evening, showers may linger into
Thursday morning.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers late in the afternoon. Chance of
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms late
                    in the afternoon.
CWR.................5 percent increasing to 32 percent.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1600, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 14 to 15 mph with gusts to around 26
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3600-4900 ft agl.
Transport winds.....East 21 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (71700 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 (low).

TIME (CDT)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........60  71  76  78
Weather cov.....    SCH CHC CHC
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........        SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).10  20  50  50
Temp............62  62  62  61
RH..............54  56  54  58
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   NE
20 FT wind spd..15  14  15  15
20 FT wind gust.21  20  23  26
Mix hgt (kft)...4.9 4.7 4.1 3.6
Smoke Dispersal.GD  GD  GD  GD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the evening. Chance of
                    rain showers in the evening, then slight chance
                    of rain showers late in the evening.
CWR.................32 percent decreasing to 2 percent.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................2 until 2200, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 42.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 8 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
                    early in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......400-1700 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northeast 10 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4100 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 (low).

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........83  81  74  75  74  68  64  52  43  38  35  32
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).50  30  40  40  30  20  20  10  0   0   0   0
Temp............59  57  55  53  52  51  51  50  48  47  46  46
RH..............62  67  74  80  83  83  83  86  89  93  93  89
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..13  13  12  9   8   8   9   9   8   9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.25  23  17  15  14  14  15  16  16  18  18  18
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Smoke Dispersal.PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers late in the afternoon.
CWR.................5 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 9 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......500-5300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....North 14 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (88400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 (low).

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........31  30  23  19  25  27  34  42  46  46  44  40
Weather cov.....                                SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                                RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  20  20  20  20
Temp............45  45  47  51  53  57  58  61  60  61  61  62
RH..............93  93  86  77  74  67  62  53  55  51  51  50
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  N   NE  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..9   9   12  12  10  12  13  14  13  13  12  13
20 FT wind gust.18  18  17  16  16  17  17  20  18  18  18  18
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.8 4.1 5.2 5.3 4.8 4.0 4.0
Smoke Dispersal.PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  GD  GD  GD  GD  FR  FR

$$
Forecaster...Wise
Requested by...Owen McElroy
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413427.1/ABR
.DELDT 05/08/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL owen.mcelroy@state.sd.us