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000
FXAK68 PAFC 171343
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
543 AM AKDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

This mornings satellite imagery shows the elongated trough over the
Bering has pushed through the Aleutians and into the North
Pacific as the southern end starts to deepen. On the eastern
periphery of this trough, a compact low is quickly progressing
northward towards Kodiak Island...dragging with it a modest
moisture plume. Winds have rapidly strengthened across the western
Gulf, especially between Kodiak Island and the southern Kenai
Peninsula where easterly winds are already gusting between 40 to
50 mph this morning. With a new upper low developing on the
southern end of the Bering/North Pacific trough, and the amplified
ridge over the eastern Gulf and western Canada, the pressure
gradient will continue to tighten over the western Gulf. Storm-
force winds expected this afternoon and evening from near the
Barren Islands to Kamishak Bay with a large swath of gale-force
winds over the western Gulf continuing into Friday morning before
the gradient begins to slacken.

In addition to strong winds, moderate to heavy rainfall will impact
Kodiak Island today and tomorrow. Models remain in good agreement
with the front stalling near Kodiak through Thursday...possibly into
Friday...before parent low starts to lift north and the front moves
towards the northern Gulf coast. Increasing PWATs at Kodiak per
the 12Z raob indicates the moisture plume has arrived, and
combined with semi-consistent upslope over the next few days,
will result in efficient precipitation processes. Still decent
confidence that lower elevations on the east side of Kodiak could
see anywhere from 3 to 5 inches of rainfall through tomorrow
night. Given that ground temperatures are still fairly cold, will
likely see some ponding of water, especially in low-lying areas.
Temperatures should remain warm enough that the lower elevations
will see all rain. The southeast quadrant of the Kenai Peninsula
will also see moderate precipitation with up to several inches of
rainfall for lower elevations and modest snow accumulations for
higher elevations across the Kenai Mountains. Conditions also
look favorable for rainfall to work into Kachemak Bay, and
combined with gusty winds, will make for a wet and blustery few
days.

Looking ahead to the end of the week and into the weekend...the low
will remain parked over the southwestern Gulf with showery
conditions lingering for Kodiak, the eastern Kenai, and western
Prince William Sound areas.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

A low pressure system south of the Aleutians will continue to bring
southeasterly winds to portions of the Bristol Bay region into
this evening. Wind gusts overnight were recorded in New Stuyahok
and Koliganek ranging from 35 to 45 mph. Today, the highest wind
gusts will drift just south of New Stuyahok as the front moves
northward along Kodiak Island this afternoon and evening. Gusts as
high as 70 mph are possible this afternoon in areas just south
and east of New Stuyahok. Precipitation overnight has ranged from
rain and snow to a rain/snow mix throughout many places. As
temperatures rise today, mostly rain will fall. However, pockets
of snow or a rain snow mix are possible through late this morning.

Persistent northerly winds today will bring a band of snow showers
to the Eastern and Central Aleutian Islands as well as Kuskokwim
Delta coastal areas. Total accumulation of this snow range from 5
to 10 inches through later this morning with amounts ranging from
6 to 12 inches in the Eastern Aleutians through late tomorrow
morning. Wind gusts reaching as high as 55 mph could reduce
visibility to as low as one half mile at times today, too.

Unsettled conditions continue until the end of the week.


-DJ

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

A moderately strong area of high pressure over the the Northern
Canadian Provinces extends a ridge across Mainland Alaska through
the forecast period. The strength of the ridge weakens, but holds
its orientation across Interior Alaska. In the Gulf, a persistent
closed low remains nearly stationary linking up with a second low
in the Bering. The Gulf low will also weaken through the weekend
as the Bering low is expected to drift over the Mainland ridge
into the Arctic through Tuesday. The Gulf low moves into a bigger
loop through Tuesday. A North Pacific low moves over the Aleutians
for the beginning of next week.

A front connecting the Gulf low with the Bering low provides the
stream for an extended period of wet weather from the Southern
Kenai Peninsula across Kodiak Island into the Alaska Peninsula.
Widespread rainfall will continue with locally heavier periods of
rain will bring several additional inches through the weekend. A
trough swinging around the low spreads rain over much of the
Southcentral coast. Southwestern Alaska may see mixed rain and
snow to the West of the vertically stacked trough, with snow
expected further North along the Western Coast.


Kutz

$$


.AVIATION...

PANC...PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Winds
flip to southeasterly and pick up late this afternoon.

&&


$$