339
FXUS61 KAKQ 020718
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
318 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and very warm conditions are expected today as high
pressure builds over the region. A backdoor cold front pushes
inland on Friday, leading to much cooler conditions at the
coast. Rain chances return Friday evening through Sunday as a
series of disturbances impact the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 AM EDT Thursday...

Cooler early this morning with lows dropping into the 50s to
the lower 60s Areas of shallow ground fog are expected to form across
the eastern shore, Hampton Roads/NE NC. Additional more patchy
fog is possible in and south of the RIC metro/Tri-cities area
early this morning. Overnight lows mainly in the upper 50s to
low 60s.

Dry and very warm weather is expected today as the upper ridge
builds back over the Eastern US. After some early morning fog,
skies become mostly sunny with temperatures climbing into the
upper 80s to around 90 for inland locations (potentially lower
90s in a few typically warmer spots). Closer to the coast, highs
will range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s as an onshore wind
develops. Mild/dry tonight with lows around 60s (mid to upper
50s Eastern Shore).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EDT Thursday...

High pressure builds SSE over New England on Friday, which will
push a backdoor cold front south along the Eastern
Shore/Chesapeake Bay. Meanwhile, our next area of low pressure
takes shape and begins to approach from the W. As a result of
the backdoor front, temperatures will vary widely from only the
mid 60s to lower 70s (perhaps only around 60F/lower 60s Maryland
Atlantic beaches) across the MD/VA Eastern Shore and locations
along the Chesapeake Bay to the mid to upper 80s further inland.
High temperatures will ultimately depend on how far/how quick
the front pushes inland with guidance still all over the place,
but could certainly see highs trend cooler (especially east).
Otherwise, increasing cloud cover by Friday afternoon and
evening with the system approaching from the west. Rain chances
increase across western portions of the forecast area late
Friday evening into Friday night. Low temperatures Friday night
range from around 50F NE to around 60F SW.

On Saturday, the combination of the lingering backdoor boundary
from Friday and the approaching system from the west will lead
to a cool, cloudy, and unsettled day. Not expecting a washout on
Saturday by any means, but scattered showers and potentially a
few thunderstorms (especially across the western half of the
area) will be possible. High temperatures will range from the
60s over across the NE to the mid to upper 70s further SSW. Rain
chances increase further Saturday night, with likely PoPs
overspreading the western half of the forecast area. Total QPF
Saturday-Saturday night will range from ~0.25" to 0.75" along
and west of I-95 and ~0.25" or less further east. Low
temperatures will generally be in the 60s for much of the area
(50s across the VA/MD Eastern Shore).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 AM EDT Thursday...

The front slowly moves/lingers across the are on Sunday leading
to continued unsettled weather. Sunday will have the best
chances for showers and storms areawide. Highs Sunday will
generally be in the 70s. Increasingly warmer Monday and Tuesday,
but there will be continued chances for mainly aftn/early
evening showers or tstms, due to a boundary lingering near or
just north of the forecast area. Highs will be in the mid 70s
to lower 80s Monday, and in the upper 70s to mid 80s Tuesday.
Outside of the slight chance for an afternoon shower or storm
(mainly north), drier conditions are anticipated for Wednesday.
Very warm, especially if we can stay rain free, as the ridge
builds over the SE US. Highs may approach 90 degrees across
inland portions of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 AM Thursday...

The main focus of the 06z TAF period will be the potential for
patchy/shallow fog early this morning, with the greatest
coverage across far SE VA into NE NC. IFR VSBYs remain in the
forecast for ORF and ECG, with slightly less confidence for IFR
VSBYs at PHF and SBY. Latest models have backed off on the fog
further to the NW, with RIC primarily staying VFR (cannot rule
out some patchy MVFR fog ~10-12z). Due to the shallow nature of
the moisture, combined with an early May sun angle, the fog
should rapidly burn off by an hour or two after sunrise. The
remainder of the forecast period will feature mostly clear/sunny
skies and VFR conditions. Winds become SSW 5-10 knots this
afternoon.

Outlook: Primarily dry/VFR conditions are expected tonight
through Friday, although some sub-VFR conditions are possible
once again along the coast early Friday as another backdoor cold
front slides through the area. There is chance for showers and
a few tstms and potentially sub-VFR conditions from late Friday
night through Sunday with the next front, with diminishing
shower/tstm chances by Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 325 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions expected through at least early Friday.

- Marginal SCA-level northeast winds and seas are possible behind a
backdoor cold front Friday into Saturday.

Mainly quiet weather across the marine area this afternoon. One
exception is over NE NC where scattered thunderstorms have
developed in associated w/ a weakening front. Expect these
storms to gradually drop S into this evening. While severe wx is
not expected, frequent lightning and gusty winds of 30-35 kt
are possible. These storms should stay confined to the Currituck
Sound and coastal waters S of the NC/VA border. Otherwise,
winds are northerly and rather light (10 kt or less) behind the
front. Seas are running 2-3 ft w/ waves 1 ft or less in the
Chesapeake Bay. Winds become S/SSW tonight into Thursday with
high pressure moving offshore. A backdoor cold front is expected
to move in from the NE Friday morning, turning the flow onshore
through most of Friday and Saturday. Models now agree on a
period of 15-20 kt winds for most of the marine area initially
behind the front Fri aftn and then possibly again Sat aftn as
the pressure gradient re-tightens. Wind probabilities have
increased during this period, especially over the ocean, and a
marginal small craft advisory may eventually be needed. Seas
could also inch up to 3-5 ft during this period. Waves in the
Chesapeake Bay will average 2-3 ft. High pressure situates
offshore again later Sun into Mon w/ southerly winds returning.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/AJZ
LONG TERM...AJB/AJZ
AVIATION...AJB/MAM
MARINE...SW