589
FXUS61 KAKQ 281830
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
230 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves well to our southeast early this week with
an upper ridge building over the area. Well above normal
temperatures are expected through much of the week. A weak cold
front crosses the area Tuesday night into Wednesday with
isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. Precipitation
chances increase late Friday and especially this weekend as
another cold front approaches the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 110 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

-Much warmer late this afternoon and evening, followed by mild
 and dry weather tonight.

Upper ridging is building over much of the eastern CONUS this
afternoon, and sfc high pressure has shifted to our S/SE. Skies
are sunny outside of FEW fair weather cumulus. Temperatures are
much warmer than they were yesterday upper 70s-lower 80s). Dry
and mild tonight with lows in the upper 50s-lower 60s with a
5-10 mph SW wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

-Well above normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday.

-Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the highest chances during the
afternoon and evening.

-Despite the storm chances, the threat for severe weather is low on
both Tuesday and Wednesday.

A ridge remains over the area through the week with well above
normal temps expected. Mon and Tues will likely be the warmest days
of the week with highs in the mid-upper 80s (upper 80s for many)
both days. Some locations may reach 90F either day (especially on
Monday) with NBM 50th percentile and MAV/MET/ECS forecasting
widespread 88-90F highs. While these summer-like temps will
certainly be well above the normal highs of mid 70s (lower 70s at
SBY) this time of year, the record highs are in the lower 90s at
most climate sites. However, SBY may approach (or exceed) record
highs either/both days (see climate section below for more
information). Apart from the heat, expect dew points in the upper
50s to lower 60s both days with dry weather on Mon, so heat indices
will be similar to the actual air temperatures.

A weak southern stream shortwave tracks over the area Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Meanwhile, at the surface, a weak cold front is
progged to slowly cross part of the area Tuesday night but may
linger over central/srn portions of the area on Wednesday (although
this is somewhat uncertain as the guidance is split with respect to
how far south the cold front makes it). Nevertheless, isolated to
widely scattered tstms will develop across the mountains of VA
Tuesday aftn and potentially move into the Piedmont by mid to late
evening before gradually weakening as they try to push eastward
overnight with the loss of daytime heating. If convection can make
it to the Piedmont by evening, isolated gusts to 45 mph are possible
in the strongest storms. Will keep PoPs no higher than 30% NW with
15-20% PoPs farther SE (and no chance of tstms in SE VA/NE NC
through Tue night). With the front potentially lingering across the
area on Wed (in addition to the shortwave tracking near or just
south of us), will keep 30-40% PoPs for scattered showers/tstms
(highest S of I-64). Otherwise, it will be a bit cooler (especially
near the coast) with the flow becoming onshore behind the front as
weak high pressure begins to settle across New England. Forecast
highs Wed are in the lower-mid 80s inland with mid-upper 70s near
the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

-Above normal temperatures continue through the week.

-Isolated showers/storms are possible Friday.

-Shower/storm chances increase Saturday ahead of a cold front.

Aloft, a ridge builds across the East Coast from late this week with
above normal temps expected. At the sfc, high pressure slides off
the New England coast Wed night into Thu, with onshore flow expected
across the area. Any convection should quickly dissipate Wednesday
evening, with mainly dry wx expected from Wed night through most of
Fri. Temps on Thu are expected to be slightly cooler than they will
be on Wed, with the coolest temps along the coast with the continued
onshore flow. Forecast highs Thu are in the lower 80s inland with
upper 60s-70s near the bay/Atlantic coast. Thu will likely remain
dry.

High pressure moves farther offshore from Friday through the weekend
while the ridge aloft slowly breaks down. Low pressure tracking well
to our NW will drag a cold front toward the area this weekend, which
will result in increased chances for showers/tstms. A prefrontal
trough may spark some showers/storms Fri aftn/evening with 15-30%
PoPs. At this time, it looks like the best chance of storms is on
Saturday with lingering precip chances on Sunday as the front may
stall near/over the area. Temps remain above normal through the
weekend (but not as warm as they will be tomorrow/Tue).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 110 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z/28 TAF period with clear
skies outside of FEW fair weather cumulus today and Monday.
SW winds will occasionally gust to 15-20 kt through this evening
before diminishing a bit tonight, with a few 15-20 kt gusts
expected once again on Monday.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions are expected at all terminals from
Monday through at least Tuesday afternoon. There is a slight
chance of tstms at RIC/SBY Tuesday evening, with a higher (~30%)
chc of mainly afternoon/evening showers and tstms on Wednesday
at all of the terminals. Very brief flight restrictions are
likely in any tstm.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

Generally benign, sub-SCA conditions, are expected through the
forecast period.

Early this morning, high pressure remains centered just off the Mid
Atlantic coast. Winds are out of the south and range from 10 to 15
knots, with a few gusts to 20 knots. Seas are generally running
around 3 to 4 feet, and waves in the bay are 1 to 2 feet (up to 3 at
the mouth). Winds will increase slightly as we approach slightly,
with winds occasionally gusting to 20 knots at times (especially
across the lower Chesapeake Bay). Otherwise, winds continue in the
10 to 15 knots range out of the S to SW today into tonight.

High pressure will gradually shift further to the south today before
becoming centered off the Southeast US coast later today through
Tuesday. Winds will average 5 to 15 knots through the period and
will primarily be out of the S or SW. Seas will range from 2 to 4
feet and waves 1 to 2 feet. A cold front moves across the waters
late Tuesday night into Wednesday, with winds shifting to the W and
then NNW (but still remaining sub-SCA). Onshore flow is then
expected later Wednesday through Thursday. Seas will increase
slightly due to the onshore, likely 3 to 4 feet, but we will have to
watch the potential for seas up to 5 feet (especially out 20 nm)
during this timeframe.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs for April 29th and April 30th:

         4/29 4/30
RIC    94/1974  93/1974
ORF    92/1974  93/1988
SBY    89/1974  86/2017
ECG    90/1974  90/1974

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI/RMM
LONG TERM...ERI/RMM
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...AJB
CLIMATE...AKQ