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000
FNUS71 KAKQ 171107
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Cold Harbor...NPS
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
707 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on April 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.

.DISCUSSION...
Mostly cloudy skies are expected today with fair mixing. Minimum RH
values will be around 47 percent this afternoon with light south
to southwest winds. Isolated showers are possible this evening
before a stronger cold front crosses the area towards the end of
the week. Min RHs will fall into the low to mid 30s on Thursday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers late in the afternoon. Chance of
                    rain showers late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 12 mph shifting to the west 10 to 12
                    mph early in the afternoon, then shifting to
                    the south 7 to 9 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (25500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................5 to 37.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........83  84  84  85  87  88  90  88  87  85
Weather cov.....                        SCH SCH SCH CHC
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  20  20  20  30
Temp............56  61  64  68  72  73  75  76  78  77
RH..............66  62  63  60  54  52  50  49  47  50
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..4   4   5   5   5   6   6   6   7   7
20 FT wind gust.6   6   8   8   8   11  11  11  12  12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   SW  W   W   SW  S   SE
Transp wind spd.5   7   8   10  12  12  12  10  9   7
LVORI...........3   3   3   2   2   1   1   1   2   2
ADI.............5   8   14  21  28  33  37  32  26  20
Haines index....2   2   3   3   3   2   2   3   3   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2   5   9   14  19  23  26  22  18  14
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Chance of
                    showers in the evening and overnight. Slight
                    chance of thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 62.
Max humidity........78 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 12 mph shifting to the southwest 6
                    to 9 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1400 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................3 to 11.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........83  81  79  74  69  64  60  55  51  40  29  18
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........        SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  10  10  10  0
Temp............76  74  72  70  68  67  66  66  65  65  64  63
RH..............54  59  64  66  70  70  73  73  75  73  75  75
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   7   8   8   8   7   7   7   6   6
20 FT wind gust.12  12  12  12  14  14  14  12  12  12  11  11
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  E   SE  S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.6   3   3   5   6   8   9   10  12  9   7   6
LVORI...........2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   3   4   4
ADI.............11  3   3   4   6   7   9   10  10  6   3   3
Haines index....4   5   5   5   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..8   4   1   2   3   4   5   5   5   4   3   2
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 7 mph shifting to the northwest
                    6 to 8 mph late in the morning.
Mixing height.......7100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 16 mph shifting to the northwest 14
                    to 17 mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (93500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................3 early in the morning increasing to 115 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........16     13     15     20     28     29
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      10     10
Temp............63     66     72     79     81     83
RH..............78     73     59     42     36     33
20 ft wind......SW 6   W 6    W 7    NW 7   NW 8   NW 7
20 ft wind gust.11     11     12     12     14     12
Mix hgt (ft)....500    500    3400   5500   6700   7000
Transport wind..SW 7   W 13   W 16   NW 16  W 14   NW 15
LVORI...........4      3      1      1      1      1
ADI.............3      13     70     104    101    115
Haines index....3      4      4      4      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3      6      50     80     81     94
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   FAIR   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in
the upper 70s. East winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in
the mid 70s. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of rain. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs
in the mid 60s. North winds around 5 mph.

$$
Forecaster...PEGRAM
Requested by...Derek Casbon
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411194.0/AKQ
.DELDT 04/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL derek_casbon@nps.gov