503
FXUS61 KALY 241048
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
648 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will bring some showers to the region
into this afternoon, then colder air returns for tonight behind
a strong cold front. High pressure will bring a return to dry
weather to end the week. Following a cool day on Thursday,
seasonable temperatures return Friday into Saturday with a
warmup Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
.UPDATE...As of 645 AM EDT, rain showers continue to slowly
progress eastward ahead of a strong cold front beginning to
enter western New York. The main batch is located across the
Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley with little or no rain falling
elsewhere. This batch of showers will continue to advance
eastward but may break up in coverage as it approaches the
Hudson Valley. With some breaks in the clouds evident on latest
satellite imagery across western areas, this could aid in the
development of some weak instability and some isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms during the midday hours.
Main change with this update were to pops to match ongoing
trends. Temperatures are generally starting out in the 40s.

Previous Discussion:
A low pressure system and strong cold front will cross the
region through this afternoon. Rain showers will continue ahead
of the cold front through the morning hours. Thereafter,
precipitation will become more isolated to scattered by the
afternoon. Some breaks of sun and daytime heating is possible
ahead of the cold front for areas along and east of the Hudson
River. The upper-level trough axis and cold pool will be
directly overhead during the midday and steepening low and mid-
level lapse rates could result in some weak surface- based
instability on the order of 500 J/kg per forecast soundings.
CAMs also support the potential for some convective shower
development. As a result, we included a slight chance for
thunder in the forecast. This activity should remain well below
severe limits, however, with boundary layer moisture and shear
rather low. Precipitation ends from west to east during the
afternoon in the wake of the cold frontal passage. There remains
a chance enough cold air arrives for some snowflakes to mix in
across the Adirondacks before ending but no accumulation is
expected. High temperatures today will range from the mid to
upper 40s across the Adirondacks and southern Greens to the
lower 60s across portions of the Hudson Valley into southern
Litchfield County before falling behind the cold front.

Northwesterly winds will pick up behind the front and much
colder and drier air will quickly advance into the region
tonight as Canadian high pressure builds in from the west. The
strongest winds will occur during the late afternoon and evening
hours (some gusts over 30 mph possible) but ease overnight as
the high builds overhead. There may still be enough wind to
prevent ideal radiational cooling conditions. However, any
locations that do decouple could fall a bit further than
our current forecast. Most areas will fall into the 20s with
some teens possible across the Adirondacks and southern Greens.
These values are about 5 degrees above current record lows for
April 25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be anchored over the region for the remainder
of the week and result in clear/mostly clear and dry weather
with light winds. Following a cold morning, highs on Thursday
will only reach the 50s with some upper 40s across the higher
elevations. These values are around 5-8 degrees below normal.
Ideal radiational cooling conditions Thursday night will send
low temperatures back into the 20s to lower 30s. Weak warm air
advection on Friday will lead to a milder day with highs closer
to normal, in the 50s and 60s. It will not be as cool Friday
night with lows mainly in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper level ridge axis is expected to move east across the
region on Sat. Dry conditions should prevail at least into the
afternoon. A warm front approaching from the west will bring
increasing clouds during the afternoon and perhaps a few
showers, especially west of the Hudson Valley. Highs look to be
near normal. Southerly winds will increase with surface high
pressure shifting southeast off the New England coast. The upper
ridge will flatten out a bit, along with the surface warm front
moving through Sat night. This will result in mainly scattered
light showers. Lows will be milder in the 40s.

The warm front will lift north of our region on Sun, as upper
ridging becomes re-established. 500 mb height anomalies of +1 to
+2 STDEV are forecast. This will result in temperatures warming
to above normal levels with lower/mid 70s for highs in most
valleys. Will mention a slight/low chance of a few showers with
a surface front nearby, but overall it looks mainly dry Sun
through Sun night. The warmest temperatures are likely to occur
on Mon, with the upper ridge axis overhead, 850 mb temperatures
anomalies solidly +1 to +2 STDEV, and low level SW winds. With a
quasi-stationary front expected to be just north of the area a
few showers or storms cannot be ruled out, but again much of the
day looks dry.

A cold front is forecast to move through on Tue, bringing a
better chance for scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will still be above normal, but not
as warm as Monday due to clouds/showers developing.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12z Thursday...A cold front approaching from the
north/west will move across the TAF sites from late this
morning into early afternoon. Mainly scattered -SHRA will
accompany the front. Prevailing conditions should mainly be VFR,
although a period of MVFR is possible this morning as the front
pushes through. Will mention TEMPO groups for MVFR at
KGFL/KPSF. VFR should prevail at KALB/KPOU. Isolated -TSRA are
possible this afternoon after the cold front passes through with
a potent upper level disturbance moves across the region.
Coverage too sparse to mention in TAFs for now, but will
continue to monitor trends.

VFR conditions with clearing skies expected from late afternoon
through the end of the period as strong area of high pressure
builds in from the north/west.

Winds will be mainly southerly around 5-15 kt with some gusts to
around 20 kt through the overnight hours. Winds will shift to
the west-northwest behind the cold front by early afternoon at
10-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt expected. Winds will shift to a
more northerly direction overnight, with speeds decreasing to
5-10 kt.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV