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000
FXUS63 KAPX 260723
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
323 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-- Elevated fire danger this afternoon into early this evening.

-- Showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms return
  tonight.

-- Showers and thunderstorms this Saturday and Sunday with
   growing potential of severe weather Saturday afternoon and
   evening.

-- Showers and storms linger into Monday. Chances of
   precipitation continue at times next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Pattern Synopsis:

Mid/upper-level ridging will center itself squarely overhead today
as associated surface high pressure continues to build east of the
region underneath favorable subsidence aloft. Upstream, shortwave
troughing will eject over the southern Great Plains and quickly lift
northeastward into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes tonight. Strong
ascent provided by this wave will deepen a cyclone as it treks
across the central Great Plains and into northern Iowa/southern
Minnesota tonight. An attendant warm front extending east-southeast
from the cyclone center looks to lift into northern Michigan later
tonight/early Saturday morning.

Forecast Details:

Elevated fire danger -- Quiet weather/sunny skies will be in place
again today. Combination of warmer afternoon temperatures in the
upper 50s and low 60s and aforementioned sunshine will promote
efficient mixing today, leading to relative humidities dipping into
the low to mid 20 percent range across interior northern Michigan
this afternoon and early evening. Fine fuels continue to dry with
rain-free weather as well. Winds will strengthen out of the
southeast today on the backside of this feature with expected
sustained winds of 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph at times. This
combination of low RHs, gusty winds, and dry fuels will lead to
elevated fire danger this afternoon into early this evening.

Showers/isolated storms tonight -- After quiet weather today, rain
chances return late this evening through tonight as the
aforementioned warm front lifts across the state. Multiple rounds of
showers will be possible overnight with initial rain likely
struggling to reach the ground with dry low-levels still in place
north of the surface front. Fumes of elevated buoyancy apparent on
forecast soundings combined with ~30kts of deep-layer shear will be
enough to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late tonight
into Saturday morning. While a few strong storms cannot be ruled
out, severe storms are not expected through 12Z/8 AM EDT Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Midlevel shortwave riding over the central U.S with upstream
shortwave troughing currently over the southwest will continue to
provide one more day of pleasant weather before showers and storms
move into the Great Lakes region this Saturday.

Aformentioned troughing will progress to the Upper Midwest by 12Z
Saturday, while weakening. A second lee trough will develop and
continue to push an unsettled air mass into the Great Lakes
region with the main focus on Saturday as severe weather becomes
a bigger threat to the CWA.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

-Showers and thunderstorms this Saturday and Sunday with growing
 potential of severe weather Saturday afternoon and evening: Lee
 cyclogenesis makes its way to the Great Lakes region at the
 start of the long term period. Warm air advection will raise
 daytime highs to the mid 70s with dew points in the upper
 50s/low 60s behind the systems warm front and providing plenty
 of energy for thunderstorm development. Current ensemble
 guidance depicting shear values above 40 kts and SRH values
 approaching 300 m2/s2 gives concern for the potential of all
 three severe hazards (wind, hail, and even possible tornado
 potential with such low LCL`s). Latest updates from SPC keep
 the northern lower under a slight risk while WPC keeps
 excessive rain potential under little to no categorical risk
 for Saturday evening/night. Showers and storms continue into
 Sunday with no severe risk as the aformentioned trough
 diminishes and forms a more stationary boundary to finish off
 the weekend.

-Showers and storms linger into Monday. Chances of
 precipitation continue at times next week: Midlevel shortwave
 troughing will progress towards the southern shore of Hudson
 Bay by Monday/Tuesday timeframe. A split flow pattern will
 continue to occupy the CONUS for the remainder of the forecast
 period with embedded waves moving over the Great Lakes region.
 Scattered showers will continue at times next week (especially
 Wednesday), but no heavy precipitation or severe weather is
 expected at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Large area of strong high pressure centered over the Great
Lakes region will slowly push eastward into New England over the
next 24 hours. Skies will remain clear overnight into Friday...
but clouds will increase by Friday night as moisture begins to
surge northward in advance of a developing storm system over
the Central Plains. Solid VFR conditions are expected at all
Eastern Upper and Northern Lower Michigan TAF sites thru Friday
evening. Chances of showers will begin to increase from SW to
NE across our area late Friday evening and overnight. Light SE
winds overnight will strengthen to 15 to 25 kts on Friday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT
     tonight for LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
     Saturday for LHZ346-347.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT
     tonight for LMZ341-342.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
     Saturday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...MLR