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000
FNUS73 KAPX 241940
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Warbler 6...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
340 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on April 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Expecting light and variable winds Thursday, with minimal gustiness.
Background flow should be from the southeast...enhanced starting as
early as mid-late morning by lake breeze development. Cold start to
the day, with lows likely in the low to mid teens...but temperatures
expected to recover into the upper 40s to lower 50s...and RHs should
be in the low 20s again, similar to today, or perhaps a little lower.


.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 52.
Min humidity........25 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming south around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......1700-3300 ft AGL increasing to 3800-5600 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor (98.0).

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........5   4   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............28  32  38  42  44  48  50  51  52
RH..............67  58  44  37  33  27  26  25  26
20 ft wind dir..S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 ft wind spd..3   3   3   5   5   5   6   6   6
20 ft wind gust.6   6   6   7   7   7   7   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 2.1 3.3 3.8 4.6 5.1 5.3 5.6 5.6
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   SE  S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.6   6   6   6   6   6   6   7   6
Vrate kt-ft.....98  122 189 221 264 291 306 387 322
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 27.
Max humidity........81 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 7 mph.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......3700-5200 ft AGL decreasing to 300-1400 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor (29.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........2   2   3   10  18  25  18  11  4   4   5   5
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............51  50  47  44  40  36  34  32  31  30  29  29
RH..............26  29  32  39  46  54  59  64  69  74  79  81
20 ft wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 ft wind spd..6   6   6   7   7   7   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 ft wind gust.10  10  10  12  12  12  10  10  10  9   9   9
Mix hgt (kft)...5.2 3.7 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.7   8   10  8   8   8   9   10  10  10  12  12
Vrate kt-ft.....360 302 144 62  37  29  30  31  33  34  36  40
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........30 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 13 mph.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 21 mph shifting to the southeast 22
                    to 24 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......300-1400 ft AGL increasing to 2400-4000 ft AGL
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (33.0-431.0) increasing to good
                    (666.0) late in the morning.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........20     49     37     37     48     49
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............30     34     45     53     57     59
RH..............83     75     50     35     30     32
20 ft wind dir..SE     SE     SE     SE     SE     SE
20 ft wind spd..8      8      14     16     16     17
20 ft wind gust.12     12     21     23     23     25
Mix hgt (ft)....300    600    2400   3600   3800   4000
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
Transport wind..S 12   S 13   S 18   SE 22  SE 22  SE 24
Vrate kt-ft.....33     74     431    781    838    944
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   FAIR   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD

$$
Forecaster...FEF
Requested by...Travis Wiltse
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412325.0/APX
.DELDT 04/24/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL travis.a.wiltse@usda.gov