Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 250518

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1218 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Short term and global models are still bringing an area of showers
southeast from northwest into south central ND late tonight
through Sunday. Utilized a blend of latest time lagged HRRR/RAP
with our previous forecast for pop details. Clear skies and light
winds remain over much of southwest and central ND. Farther north,
low level moisture has increased with mid level clouds also
approaching, thus raised low temperatures here a bit. Still the
potential for patchy frost across portions of the southwest and
central where dewpoints remain in the low to mid 30s.

UPDATE Issued at 956 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Little change with this update. Not enough confidence for
widespread frost to warrant a Frost Advisory for the southwest for
tonight. Potential mid level cloud cover ahead of the impulses
across western Saskatchewan as of 03 UTC that will move southeast
overnight, and a slight increase in surface winds as the center
of the surface high propagates into western South Dakota should
keep the frost threat to patchy at best.

UPDATE Issued at 646 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Per CAM trends through the 22 UTC RAP/HRRR, increased the mention
of showers for late tonight into Sunday morning across northwest
and central North Dakota as a shortwave across eastern Alberta
early this evening propagates southeast and interacts with a
modest low level baroclinic zone. Will continue to monitor the
frost potential across the southwest for tonight should an
advisory be needed.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Overnight lows with scattered frost possible and minimal
precipitation chances tonight and Sunday highlight the short term.

Currently, the small but potent upper low that moved through our
area early this morning was near the MN/WI border. Another shortwave
in the northwest flow aloft was over central Manitoba with yet
another surface cold front draped west-east across central
Saskatchewan/Manitoba. This weaker cold front is forecast to enter
northern ND late tonight and sweep southeast across the state Sunday
morning. Light winds tonight, and dry soil conditions and dry air
allowing temperatures to drop into the 30s across a good portion of
western ND - especially southwestern ND ahead of the weak front.
Lows from the mid to upper 30s for much of the area south and west
of the Missouri River. We may see scattered frost - short-lived -
tonight in parts of the southwest quarter of the state.

Thinking is northwest winds around 15 mph most of the day Sunday
with gusts around 20 should be lighter than Saturday winds.
Models still suggesting isolated showers off and on tonight and
Sunday. Continued cool with highs in the 60s north central to mid
70s southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Warmer and more humid conditions temperatures and thunderstorms
Tuesday, then back to cooler conditions with only off and on chances
of showers or thunderstorms through the rest of the week.

Upper level low pressure currently over the northern Pacific/Gulf
of Alaska will move onto the British Columbia coast late in the
weekend and then into the central Canadian prairie provinces by
Tuesday and Wednesday, before dropping south across the Northern
Plains states Thursday/Friday, then lifting northeast into the Great
Lakes region on the weekend.

On Monday the cool surface high moves southeast with southerly winds
taking shape across North Dakota. Upper level ridging ahead of the
aforementioned west coast Canadian low will allow a thermal ridge to
build into our area. Looking at temps 70-80 Monday. Then increasing
southerly winds Tuesday ahead of a surface cold front/trough that
sets up over the Front Range. Expecting gusty southerly winds
bringing dewpoints into the 60F+ range over central and eastern ND.
The current model runs indicate the front/trough moving into the
western Dakotas Tuesday afternoon, with drier air and gusty westerly
winds behind it. The thermal ridge ahead of the trough/front with
h700 temps of +10C to +12C should be enough of a cap to inhibit
early afternoon convection. Tuesday night an upper level shortwave
impulse associated with the Canadian low sweeps east across the
Dakotas along with the surface front/trough. Plenty of CAPE and bulk
shear for severe storms, mainly across the east half of the state.

Once this wave traverses the area, we will be under the cooler
regime of the Canadian low, with off and on chances of showers and
thunderstorms through the rest of the week. Looking at highs in the
70s by Thursday, and 65 to 75 by Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Despite vfr cigs/vsbys at all terminals this Taf period, -shra can
be expected at KISN from 12z-16z Sunday, with a a vcsh mention at
KMOT/KBIS generally between 15z and 20z Sunday. A clearing sky will
commence at all terminals by around 01z Monday.




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