Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 070543
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1143 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Have decided to extend the Blizzard warning for portions of
central ND through 6 am Wednesday. Still seeing some within the
slowly diminishing deformation zone over central ND. Area of light
snow has developed over central ND and this has, at least
temporarily greatly reduced visibilities in the Minot area. This
band does also extend south into Logan and Mcintosh counties,
which were set to expire at midnight also. It`s a given that the
strong winds will continue tonight so feel better just extending
the Blizzard warning through the night.

Made some adjustments to pops based on latest radar and updated
latest sensible weather elements. Updated WSW has been sent. Will
send the rest of the updated products momentarily.

UPDATE Issued at 943 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

No significant changes with the late evening update. Surface
observations at Rolla, Rugby and Jamestown continue to indicate
consistent visibilities under a mile. Expect open areas from the
James River Valley to the Turtle Mountains are still well within
Blizzard criteria with near zero visibilities.

Area webcams from western portions of the Blizzard warning show
improving conditions. Will allow the Warning to expire as
advertised in Minot and Sherwood, Wishek and Napoleon, at
Midnight.

In western North Dakota, wind chills are currently around 20 below
zero. We did extend the wind chill advisory farther east to
include all areas west and south of Lake Sakakawea and the
Missouri River, as well as the Bowbells and Stanley areas north of
the lake.

Winds will continue to slowly diminish across western and central
North Dakota tonight. A few flurries or light snow showers are
possible over the central, but any light accumulating snow will be
confined to far eastern portions of the James River Valley into
the Turtle Mountains.

UPDATE Issued at 811 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

We have allowed the blizzard warning to expire for portions of
western and central North Dakota. Mainly from Bowbells and Stanley
south through Beulah, Glen Ullin, Bismarck and Selfridge. Winds
continue to slowly diminish and visibilities have greatly
improved. However, per the NDDOT travel is still not advised in
these areas. Any streets and roads that have not been cleared may
still be impassable.

The Blizzard Warning Remains in effect through midnight for areas
like Minot and Sherwood in the north central, and Napoleon and
Wishek in the south central.

The Blizzard warning will remain in effect for eastern portions of
central ND, mainly from the Turtle Mountains to the James River
Valley. Expect strong winds to continue here through the night
with near zero visibilities, especially in open country.

UPDATE Issued at 548 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

We have extended the blizzard warning through 6 am Wednesday
morning for eastern portions of central ND. this included the
Turtle mountains through the James River Valley. Some cities
include Bottineau...Rugby...Harvey...Carrington and Jamestown.

With some of the heaviest snow accumulations over the northern
James River Valley into the Turtle mountains, and strong winds
expected to continue through the night, we extended the warning
through 6 am Wednesday for the areas mentioned above.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 149 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Continued blizzard conditions through this evening highlight the
short term forecast.

Extended the Blizzard Warning through 02 UTC form Burke county
through Bismarck and Mandan...Fort Yates and Linton and through
06 UTC for points further east into the James River Valley and
the Turtle Mountains area. This extension is based on 0.5km winds
of 40-45 kts continuing for these areas based upon the 17-18 UTC
HRRR well into the evening. Across the far west, the Wind Chill
Advisory remains unchanged through Wednesday morning. As the
Blizzard Warning expires this evening, some counties may need to
be added to the Wind Chill Advisory. As the arctic high builds
into the region on Wednesday, widespread single digit highs are
expected across western and central North Dakota.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 149 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Dangerous wind chills Wednesday through Friday and the potential
for accumulating snow on Saturday highlight the extended forecast.

The 12 UTC global suites are in good agreement on arctic high
pressure across the Northern Plains Wednesday through Friday.
Dangerous wind chills are possible at least during the overnight
and morning hours each day across portions of western and central
North Dakota. Dependent on cloud cover, Thursday night into Friday
morning may be very cold with the arctic high centered over
western and central North Dakota with a large snowpack.
Thereafter, accumulating snow is favored for Saturday across the
area north of a surface low forecast to propagate across the
central plains. The arctic airmass may rebuild across the area
Sunday into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

IFR visibilities at KJMS will continue through the evening and
into the overnight hours. Some improvement to MVFR visibilities
can be expected by early Wednesday morning. Elsewhere low VFR to
occasional MVFR ceilings will be the rule through the night and
into Wednesday morning. Occasional MVFR-IFR visibilities in
blowing snow can also be expected, especially at KMOT. Occasional
MVFR ceilings and visibilities can be expected through the day
Tuesday due to some snow showers and blowing snow with gusty
winds.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Wednesday for
NDZ001-002-009-010-017>021-031>034-040>045.

Blizzard Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ003>005-011>013-
022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
AVIATION...TWH



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