Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 270527

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1227 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

No major changes required for this update.

UPDATE Issued at 933 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

A slight increase in POPs for the far north central was the only
adjustment made to the forecast. Chances for isolated showers
should dwindle down within an hour.

UPDATE Issued at 644 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Based on radar trends and current HiRes models, a slight chance
for rain was extended to 02Z. Sky cover was also adjusted/pulled
back to reflect current observations. Otherwise, current obs were
blended into the forecast and no other changes were made.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

The main challenges for the short term will be precipitation
chances across the west this afternoon and overnight fog tonight
and into Monday morning.

This afternoon, a CU field had developed over much of western and
parts of central North Dakota. Very steep low level lapse rates
were located over the western third of the state, with some modest
MUCAPE (~250 J/kg) over the northwest. A few light radar echoes
have been pulsing on radar, so the thought is that isolated to
scattered convective showers will develop through the afternoon.
While a lightning strike or two is not out of the question,
confidence is too low to put thunder in the forecast at this
time. The latest runs of the HRRR and other CAMs all tend to agree
with this afternoon convective activity. As the sun goes down,
any lingering showers should begin to dissipate.

Overnight we are looking at favorable conditions for fog again
over the east, especially the James River Valley. Gradually
clearing skies, high soil/surface moisture, and very light winds
should aid in the development of areas of fog over the James River
Valley, with patchy fog possible further west and north.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

The longer term features more of the same, a generally progressive
pattern with periodic chances of light precipitation. The best
chance for precipitation will likely be Tuesday night and into
Wednesday. The ECMWF had been the most bullish about precip
amounts, but even its latest 12z solution has settled down quite a
bit. Other waves bringing chances for light precipitation will
approach the area by the end of the work week and the weekend, but
there is still considerable uncertainty between the global
models with regards to timing. Above normal temperatures will
continue through the forecast period, with highs mainly in the 50s
and 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

KJMS is the aviation concern for the 06Z TAF period. Fog is
forecast to develop by around 08z. VLIFR visibilities are
expected to impact KJMS through Monday morning. Fog may make it
into KBIS and KMOT. VFR conditions are expected in western and
central areas.




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