Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 220239
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
939 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROPPING FASTER THAN FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST
WHERE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
HOWEVER WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD...
THINK OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE IN THE BALLPARK. COULD BE SOME INCREASING
THIN HIGH CLOUDS SOUTHWEST LATE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY
CHANGE THE FORECAST. DID BUMP UP SKY COVER THERE JUST A BIT LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NO UPDATES PLANNED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT. NO UPDATES OTHER THAN POPULATING LATEST
SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

BENIGN WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS THIS
AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WEAK RETURN FLOW
COMMENCING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY. THUS HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5 TO
7 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO READINGS FROM TODAY...WITH MONDAY
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWERS 70S ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT LIFTED NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN
APPROACHES NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY...WITH
MODELS DIFFERING A BIT ON EXACT POSITION...THOUGH AGREE THAT MOST
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH NORTH DAKOTA
ON THE NORTHERN/EASTERN FRINGES. THEREFORE...KEPT MOST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE AREA BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

MODELS HINTING AT THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMING NEXT
WEEKEND...MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS. THE GFS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IN PHASE WITH A LOW OVER
NORTHERN CANADA MOVING INTO THE PLAINS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION MAINTAINS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
CANADA AT THIS TIME PERIOD...AND A MUCH SLOWER MOVEMENT TO THE US
ROCKIES UPPER LOW/TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH






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