Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 301756
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1156 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

COOL AIR STRATUS LEADING EDGE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE SOURIS RIVER
VALLEY OF NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS AREA SEEMS TO BE A BIT
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALSO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS SHOWING
UP AT ESTEVAN. ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
BURKE..WARD AND RENVILLE COUNTIES AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE
AREA. ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS WHERE CLOUDS ARE FORMING TO MID 20S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 849 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING IN MODERATE
WARM ADVECTION. MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S WHICH IS QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. UPDATE TO CLOUDS
THE ONLY CHANGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AN
AREA OF MVFR-IFR CLOUDS FROM BOTTINEAU TO HARVEY AND WISHEK WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT
MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. MADE SOME MINOR SKY COVER
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND BUMPED UP SOUTHERLY
WINDS JUST A LITTLE THIS MORNING OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS CLOUDS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY
AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

EARLY THIS MORNING AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND PUSH NORTH. THE HRRR IS
DOING A REASONABLE JOB DEPICTING THE CURRENT AREA OF STRATUS IN
THE 925MB MOISTURE FIELD. THE HRRR HAS THE AREA OF STRATUS
LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 8 AM.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM AND COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
HAVE THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY ABOUT 11 AM. WINDS THEN SHIFT
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE FAVORED FOR
A NICE QUICK WARM UP BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WEST DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND A WARM FRONT
NEARBY THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE LOW
50S. THE NORTH SHOULD REMAIN COOLER AS THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
EARLIER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKE HOLD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK WITH A NUMBER OF LIGHT SNOW EVENTS. THEN POSSIBLY A
RETURN TO MORE MILD CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN PERIOD
AND USED A MODEL BLEND WITH WPC QPF FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

WITH THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...00 UTC FRIDAY MODELS HAVE FLIPPED A BIT
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW FARTHER NORTH AND EAST
WHILE THE GEM HAS SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE HIGHEST QPF.
HOWEVER A BLEND STILL YIELDS A REASONABLE ESTIMATE...CLOSE TO WPC
FORECAST AND SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A 120KT UPPER LEVEL JET DROPPING
INTO MONTANA FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH A LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THIS SAME AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
EXPANDED CATEGORICAL POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE
THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO EXPAND CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH.
FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY 1 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT TAPERING QUICKLY TO LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION FROM AROUND SHERWOOD TO RUGBY AND CARRINGTON.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. THERE ARE DETERMINISTIC MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT IN GENERAL
IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WIDESPREAD AREA OF SNOW...BUT WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS OF AN INCH AND A HALF OR LESS. THIS SYSTEM IS QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES WHICH INDUCES SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MONDAY REGION TUESDAY. AGAIN...WIDESPREAD
SNOWS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY SUB ADVISORY
CATEGORY SNOW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER WOULD
RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT THIS FAR OUT THINGS CAN
CERTAINLY CHANGE. THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY TRENDED FARTHER NORTH AS
PREVIOUS RUNS SUPPRESSED PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM.

BEYOND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...THE GFS/GEM SUPPRESS ADDITIONAL SNOWS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF HOWEVER KEEPS A QUASI ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION LONG ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER IMPULSE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...GIVING US
ONE LAST SHOT OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS BEFORE COLD HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT WE MIGHT BREAK THE COLD AND ACTIVE PATTERN AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND BEGINS TO PUSH
INTO THE PLAINS.

WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THINGS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWS WITH EACH SYSTEM BUT
SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BEGIN TO ADD UP. WILL ISSUE A SPS TO HIGHLIGHT
THE FIRST SYSTEM AND INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SNOWS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AFTER 06Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA





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