Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 040027
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
727 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THUNDERSTORMS FIRED ON THE SOUTH DAKOTA SIDE OF THE STANDING ROCK
NATION AND ADVANCED NORTH...INTO SIOUX COUNTY...THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE NATION. THE AREA OF FORMATION WAS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...IN THE AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE / LIFT.

STORMS WERE WEAKENING AS THEY PUSHED NORTH...FARTHER FROM THE
JUICIEST AIR. THEY WERE ALSO BECOMING LESS OF A SOLID LINE AND
MORE OF A BROKEN ONE. AN ISOLATED STORM HAS FORMED NORTHWEST OF
BISMARCK...ON A NORTHWESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND
ANOTHER NORTH OF FORT YATES...ON AN EASTWARD PUSHING ONE.

UPDATED THE FORECAST A WHILE BACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND WINDS VICINITY STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDE THE VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 SOUTH CENTRAL SHOULD BE COMMON
THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY A PLUME OF
MOISTURE WAS RAISING DEWPOINT ACROSS THE REGION NEAR 70 DEGREES.
SOME AWOS LOCATIONS...DEFINITELY AT OAKES AND POSSIBLY
LINTON...SEEM A BIT HIGH IN COMPARISON TO SURROUNDING
OBSERVATIONS. BELIEVE HEAD INDEX WILL BE AROUND 100 FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON THEN FALL IN THE EVENING AS A SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND DRYER AIR FILTERS IN. WILL NOT ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

TONIGHT A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LINE UP WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS WILL BE PRETTY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND GOOD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
POSSIBLY IN THE AFTERNOON SO INCLUDED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE LONG TERM ARE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR LEE TROUGHING AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING ALONG CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SUNDAY...SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR (EAST CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA) FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE INDICATING
SEVERAL THOUSAND JOULES OF CAPE AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER COULD
LIMIT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A RATHER WINDY SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS EXPECTED AS
THE LOW WRAPS UP AND PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ISOLATED -TSRA IN THE KBIS AREA TO START THE TAF VALID PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT FROM KMOT TO JUST WEST OF KBIS WAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST.
IT WILL SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS OVERNIGHT. ENERGY MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT WILL TRIGGER -SHRA / -TSRA ACROSS WESTERN SITES. FOR
FRIDAY...WITH THE WESTERN ENERGY...AND THE FRONT...EXPECT SCATTERED
-SHRA / -TSRA EXCEPT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE STRONGER...EVEN SEVERE...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FINALLY...PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY DAYBREAK IN RIVER VALLEYS EAST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JPM



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