Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 200228
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
928 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 926 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Minor changes to the minimum temperatures tonight across teh
southwest. Lowered to the upper 30s to lower 40s. Otherwise
current forecast ok.

UPDATE Issued at 617 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

North Dakota remains well into the warm sector of the surface low
pressure system which is currently located in central Alberta.
Skies will be mainly clear tonight with much above normal lows.
Current forecast looks ok.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Tranquil weather will continue tonight. Mostly clear skies with
mild lows ranging from the lower 40s in the northwest, to the
lower 50s in southeast.

Friday will be another warm day for western and central North Dakota,
as an anomalous warm airmass stretching from southern
Saskatchewan to eastern Wyoming progresses into the Dakotas.
Forecast highs are generally in the upper 70s and lower 80s; a
good 20 degrees above average. A few locations may reach record
high temperatures.

Friday night, the 12Z model suite are in good agreement on a strong
surface front moving from west to east across the state. Strong cold
air advection and strong winds are expected with this system. A 3hr
pressure rise bubble of 8mb to 12mb is forecast to slide into
southwest ND between 03z and 06Z Saturday. BUFKIT soundings are
advertising mixed layer winds between 40 and 50kts at the top of the
mixed layer. The strongest winds are expected in the Southwest. The
pressure bubble weakens as it moves into central ND by 09Z Saturday.
A headline for high winds may be needed.

A cool and breezy post frontal day can be expected Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

A return to near normal temperatures and progressive flow aloft,
highlight the long term.

A series of shortwave troughs are expected to move across the
Northern Plains, though chances for rain are skimpy as overall
moisture is lacking. The best chances for rain may come Sunday night
into Monday morning. Although, breezy conditions will be more
prevalent than rain in the long term.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

VFR conditions are forecast for the 00Z TAF period. Increasing
low level winds will create some low level wind shear at KJMS
between 08-21Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...WAA


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