Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 260234

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
934 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Issued at 926 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Have backed off a bit more on the timing of potential rain over
the southwest/south central in line with latest guidance. Have
also trimmed down precipitation chances over northern locations.
Updates have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 626 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Have backed off on timing of precipitation chances over the
southwest as rain appears to remain well off to the west and
latest high-res models have slowed things down a bit. Otherwise,
previous forecast looks good.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

At the upper levels, a west coast trough will keep the state in
southwest flow through the short term. While the two most vigorous
waves will pass to the north and south, there does appear to be
enough convergence at the surface for some light precipitation along
an inverted surface trough that will extend from western South
Dakota into southwestern North Dakota overnight. Many of the High
Resolution models are showing fog from east of the Missouri River
valley to the James River valley. While, the HRRR specifically
looks a bit overdone, the feeling is that at least patchy fog will
be possible over these areas overnight and Sunday morning.

Light precipitation chances will continue to propagate east
through the day on Sunday bringing more chances of light showers
to much of the forecast area. Over the James River valley,
forecast soundings show a very brief opportunity of a light
mixture of rain, freezing rain, and possibly sleet Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Progressive flow aloft will keep the area in an active pattern,
but split flow will keep any major chances of precipitation to a
minimum. For now, the best chances for some light precipitation
appear to be overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. From
there, model agreement tends to diverge with regards to wave
strength and timing specifics. For this reason, elected to keep
with our in house blend of global models throughout the long term.
Above average high temperatures, generally in the 50s and 60s,
will stick around through the extended period.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Patchy fog will develop later tonight over central North Dakota
into the James River Valley bringing localized IFR conditions.
The fog will deteriorate Sunday morning. Some light rain is
possible over southern areas overnight into early Sunday morning.
Localized MVFR visibility will be possible. Otherwise...VFR
conditions will prevail.




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