Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 251736
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1236 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1122 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

The showers will persist longer across the northeast in Wells,
Pierce and Rolette counties this afternoon and updated POP`s for
that. Otherwise current forecast looks ok.

UPDATE Issued at 929 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

The fog has ended across the southwest. The showers were
progressing east and will be out of the area before noon. Made
minor adjustments to POPs across the northeast.

UPDATE Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Main forecast change was to add some fog to portions of southwest
North Dakota as reduced visibility is being reported at KDIK, and
can also be seen on NDDOT webcams in Dickinson and Killdeer.
Coverage appears to be limited, and this should erode in the next
couple of hours. Some showers continue to slide through central
North Dakota, so have adjusted precipitation chance a bit to line
up with current activity.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

The cold front will push into eastern North Dakota, with chances
for precipitation remaining near the surface low just along the
Canadian Border. Today will be another breezy day across western
and west central North Dakota. Winds around 30 mph out of the
west with gusts around 40 mph are expected. Current greenup and
cooler temperatures will again keep fire danger below the high
level even with the gusty winds.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

The weekend appears cool with scattered showers possible. Models
are a bit more dry than previous runs and don`t have the best
agreement. Therefore, only minimal chances for light rain is in
the forecast. An upper level low will circulate around Ontario
funneling several more shortwave troughs through the Northern
Plains in what could be a modestly active northwest flow regime
early next week. This pattern often produces an active
thunderstorm pattern in early June, but the latest guidance
suggests only minor precipiation chances and amounts through next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Gusty west southwesterly winds continue to overspread western and
central North Dakota this afternoon behind a departing cold front.
However winds will remain southerly over the James River Valley
area for the next couple of hours. Lower ceilings will slowly move
into northwestern North Dakota this afternoon and periods of MVFR
conditions will be possible over KISN during the early afternoon.
Elsewhere, expect VFR ceilings and visibilities to prevail until
late tomorrow morning, when MVFR ceilings will move into northwest
and north central North Dakota. Friday morning, breezy winds will
shift to the northwest.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...ZH



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