Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 161455

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
855 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Issued at 852 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Current forecast looks on track. Only change was to limit the
sprinkles and flurries this morning to the southern James River
Valley area.

UPDATE Issued at 627 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

A nearly stationary frontal boundary over eastern ND will push
east as a warm front today. Areas of light rain, especially over
the south central have ended, and except for a stray flurry or
sprinkle this morning, dry conditions will prevail today. For the
morning update, utilized a blend of short term guidance to
populate from current conditions through midday.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Main forecast issue in the short term period is ongoing rain.
Luckily temperatures have risen with the approaching rain freezing
precipitation has not been a problem.

Currently, shortwave trough is producing widespread precipitation
across south central ND and it appears to be finally drying up as
short term models have been hinting at all night long. Will
likely still keep a slight chance of rain or a sprinkle during
the morning hours over the south central.

We had 0.06 at the Bismarck Airport through 3 AM and fortunately
temperatures are not significantly cooler behind the trough.
Otherwise we would be seeing a lot of icy conditions. With that
said, there does appear to be some clearing in the northwest, and
any areas that would happen to drop to around freezing this
morning would have the potential for some slippery sidewalks and
untreated roadways.

Skies clear from northwest to southeast Today with highs generally
in the 30s. Quiet tonight with lows in the mid teens to mid 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 256 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Sunday kicks off the long term with nice weather. As we get into
the Sunday night/Monday Morning a clipper/cold front is projected
to move eastward across ND. Chances for snow are forecast mainly
across the north half of the state, through Monday morning.
breezy conditions are also expected Monday. Brisk winds continue
through Monday and into Tuesday, bringing colder air into the
state. Another system (with potential impacts) is slated for late
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Widespread accumulating snow will
be possible with this system, though much depends on the eventual
track of the system. Once this system departs, much colder air is
forecast to enter into the region, bringing an extended period of
below normal temperatures to the area for the first time since
our early November cold snap. Based on long range outlooks (MJO
and ensemble runs) the colder air may linger beyond the long term.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 627 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

A frontal boundary extended from northern Saskatchewan to
southeastern ND to northern IA. This boundary was between cooler air
over Ontario and warmer air over the western plains and Front Range.

A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings are expected at the TAF sites through
sunrise, then ceilings becoming VFR from west to east, beginning at
KISN/KDIK by around 15z, after 18z at KMOT/KBIS, and finally at KJMS
around 21z.




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