National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KBIS 151942
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
242 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. GOOD MIXING
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH TODAY IN BROAD SUBSIDENCE
GENERATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL
SASK/ALBTA. WITHIN THIS SUBSIDENCE REGION CAN IDENTIFY A 90 KT JET
ALOFT EXITING THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTH AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL SECTIONS THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH UNTIL THEN.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS ABUNDANT TOWERING CU ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN MANITOBA. THIS APPEARS O EB ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CANADIAN UPPER LOW...COOL AIR ALOFT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES.
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING WILL REQUIRE THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAYTIME HEATING TO DEVELOP INTO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BUT
EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FAR
NORTH UNTIL SUNSET. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND MERGES
WITH THE FLOW/ENERGY FROM THE HUDSON BAY LOW. AS THIS REMNANTS OF
THE UPPER LOW SWING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWER NORTH HALF OF THE STATE SUNDAY. INSTABILITY IS A
BIT MARGINAL BUT ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AGAIN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM  CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED WITH A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY ESTABLISHING
ITSELF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR MOST FIELDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
MONDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE A POTENTIAL
SHIFT OF THE AXIS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD YIELD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SUPPORTS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE FORECAST
TRANSITION TO FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES
POTENTIALLY EJECTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 241 PM  CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

AT 2 PM CDT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED WEST OF LAKE WINNIPEG
MANITOBA WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. MAIN THREAT TO
AVIATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 KTS KISN-KDIK-KMOT UNTIL 00Z. WINDS WEST 12 TO 25 KTS
KBIS-KJMS. WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 15 KTS AFTER 00Z. VFR
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES TOUGH 02Z. THIS TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE
IN TAF FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-031>033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...WAA