Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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514
FXUS63 KBIS 180342
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1042 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

ROLLA STILL SUSTAINED AT OVER 40KTS WITH TURTLE MOUNTAIN RAWS
STILL GUSTING TO 61 MPH. WILL EXTEND THE HIGH WIND WARNING A
COUPLE OF HOURS...TILL 1AM CDT. RAP PRESSURE RISES ON THE DECREASE
SO A 1AM EXPIRATION SHOULD BE GOOD.


UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1004 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

HEADLINES WILL REMAIN AS IS. AN ARGUMENT CAN BE MADE FOR A SMALL
AREA FOR BLIZZARD HEADLINES WITH BOTH ROLLA AND HARVEY REPORTING
STRONG WINDS GUSTING 35-45KTS AND 1/4 MILE VIS IN HEAVY SNOW.
HOWEVER...VIS HAVE BEEN JUMPING FROM 1/4 TO 3/4 AND DO NOT FEEL
THE SMALL AREA AND TIME DURATION JUSTIFIES AN UPGRADE. THUS WILL
MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS WITH NEAR BLIZZARD
WORDING AND OTHER DIRE TERMINOLOGY IN THE OVERVIEW AND SEGMENT.

HIGH WIND WARNING OVER MY FAR NORTHEAST EXPIRES AT 11PM. WILL
REVISIT IN 30-45 MIN FOR A POSSIBLE EXTENSION.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT COOL. HAVE HAD A MIX OF SLEET SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A WARM LAYER ALOFT...COLD LAYER AROUND 850MB...AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THE WARM LAYER WILL COOL
WITH ALL SNOW BY 01-02Z.

HEADLINES ALL STILL VALID...AND WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THIS
UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

OPTED TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING OVER ROLETTE AND PIERCE
COUNTIES. WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST OVER 60 MPH AT OBSERVING SITES
ACROSS MY FAR NORTHEAST. CANNOT IGNORE THIS SO WENT WITH A
WARNING. OTHER EDITS MINOR FOR NOW...ANOTHER UPDATE OUT BY 0030Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

SIGNIFICANT STORM IMPACTING NORTH DAKOTA WILL BEGIN TO WANE
TONIGHT AND EXIT THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS COLDER AIR WRAPS UP
INTO THE SYSTEM SNOW WILL START TO ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL...WITH 2 TO NEAR 6 INCHES EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM
NORTH CENTRAL THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE SNOW AND MENTION THE STRONG WINDS IN THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. WILL MAINTAIN WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THE NIGHT SOUTH
CENTRAL.

THE RAIN WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN
THERE IS A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE
WIDESPREAD WARM CONVEYER BELT PRECIP HAS BEEN QUASI STATIONARY
TODAY.

FINALLY...WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WILL LET THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AND ITS SNOW AMOUNTS STAND IN FOR THE FREEZE WARNING
NORTH CENTRAL. ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH WILL ISSUE A FREEZE
WARNING TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MONDAY WILL BECOME SUNNY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

COOL AND DRY WILL CHARACTERIZE THE LONG TERM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEEKEND STORM
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MID 20S FOR MOST
OF NORTH DAKOTA. A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WIDESPREAD
FROST.

THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING ENTRENCHED OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BUILDING WEST. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND STORM
TRACKS THIS WEEK SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND INTO THE 60S BY THURSDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 1004 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE NORTHWEST 04-07Z...ELSEWHERE WEST
08-12Z...AND ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TOMORROW MORNING FROM
WEST TO EAST.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

HAVE ISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING EAST
CENTRAL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO 4 INCHES WITH SOME ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS CAUSING PONDING...AND FLOODED FIELDS. CALLS AND
INQUIRIES SO FAR HAVE REVEALED ROADS TO BE OK WITH SOME MINOR
FLOODING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ MONDAY FOR NDZ001-009-
017>020-031>037-040>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ MONDAY FOR NDZ019-020-
034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR NDZ002>005-
010>013-021>023-025.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR NDZ005-013.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...WAA



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