Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 251810
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
110 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

ALL WE DID WITH THIS UPDATE WAS BLEND OBSERVATIONS INTO THE HOURLY
FORECASTS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTED IN LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE...THOUGH WE DID DECREASE POPS A BIT THROUGH 20 UTC IN NORTH
CENTRAL ND LIKE AROUND MINOT WHERE THERE IS AN OBVIOUS BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION ON MIDDAY RADAR IMAGERY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1012 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO LOWER FORECAST HIGHS BY A
FEW DEGREES F IN MANY AREAS...BUT PARTICULARLY OVER WEST CENTRAL
ND FROM BEACH AND WATFORD CITY TO DICKINSON AND KILLDEER. CLOUDS
AND NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
PROHIBIT THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM WARMING MUCH TODAY. IN FACT...
2-METER /NON-MOS-BASED/ TEMPERATURES FROM SOME RECENT MODELS ARE
A BIT COOLER YET...AND THAT GUIDANCE OFTEN DOES WELL WITH THESE
SCENARIOS. THUS...A LATER UPDATE MAY NEED TO LOWER HIGHS A BIT
MORE. OTHERWISE...THE GOING FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK WITH
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO PERSIST AND SPREAD WESTWARD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

QUICK UPDATE TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 11
UTC...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK FOR TODAY AND
SUPPORTED BY THE 06-10 UTC GLOBAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

CONTINUED LIGHT PRECIPITATION TODAY HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSIMILATE THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...THE 00 THROUGH 07 UTC GLOBAL AND HIGH
RESOLUTIONS SUITES HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE ONGOING SCENARIO AND
WILL PLACE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A CONSENSUS OF THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR
THE SHORT TERM. OVERALL THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING WILL FILL AND PROPAGATE INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. WRAP AROUND LIGHT
PRECIPIATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER...INTENSITY WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WEST AND THE NORTH THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE VERY MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHTS
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC GLOBAL SUITES CONTINUE TO FAVOR AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PROPAGATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY IMPACT WESTERN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FORECAST SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING SUPPORTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW. OUTSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...GENERALLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE PERIOD WITH A MEAN CENTRAL
CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KDIK/KJMS THROUGH TODAY IN
RAIN...STRATUS AND FOG. SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN AT KDIK. WHILE
KBIS HAS BEEN SURROUNDED BY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...THE TERMINAL HAS
REMAINED MVFR. HOWEVER...CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO IFR YET TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD IN THE MVFR RANGE AT KISN/KMOT TODAY.
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA
IN STRATUS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH



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