Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 020627
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1227 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. CLOUDS OUT WEST ARE
PROGRESSING AT A SLOWER RATE EASTWARD THAN INITIALLY FORECAST.
THEREFORE...DELAYED ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY SEVERAL
HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 928 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

CLEAR SKIES...SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS CAUSING A TEMPERATURE
CONUNDRUM TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES VARY BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES IN AN
HOUR OR TWO. FOR EXAMPLE BISMARCK TEMPS WENT FROM 18 TO 6 THEN
BACK TO 13 IN 90 MINUTES. SO WILL BOLDLY GO FORWARD WITH A MIN
FORECAST OF 1 ABOVE AT BISMARCK. OTHERWISE NEW FORECAST MINS
RANGE FROM 7 BELOW NORTHWEST TO 5 ABOVE SOUTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...AND REMAIN CLEAR
ELSEWHERE. UPDATED CLOUDS TO CONFORM TO THE RAPID DISSIPATION OF
THE CONVECTION CLOUDS THAT FORMED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SNOW
FREE AREAS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT SHOULD USHER IN
DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS A RESULT. WINDS
WILL ALSO VEER SOUTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS
EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS
EASTERN MONTANA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
BASIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WIND...MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH AND EAST TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL BE THE SHARP TRANSITION BACK INTO FRIGID
TEMPERATURES...WINDY CONDITIONS...AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILL
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER
EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH A COUPLE OF CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEMS BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF MOISTURE PROSPECTS.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING OUT OF THE YUKON TERRITORIES WITH A STRONG JET/140KT
FARTHER UPSTREAM WHICH WILL LATER INTENSITY/SHARPEN UP THE TROUGH
AS IT SLIDES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OVERTAKE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 11MB TO 13MB WILL
BARREL DOWN FROM SASKATCHEWAN MONDAY EVENING AND SPRAWL OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND EXTEND INTO WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THE NAM/GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW AN AVERAGE MIXED LAYER WIND SPEED OF 30KT
FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK...WITH STRONGER WINDS RESIDING IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. HERE BUFKIT ADVERTISES MIXED LAYER WINDS
NEAR 35KT...WITH 40KT AT THE TOP. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED
FOR EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY. A BORDERLINE/LOW END WIND ADVISORY LOOKS
PLAUSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT WITH A DUSTING OR LESS MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE ONE AREA
THAT STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE OF SNOW HERE WITH CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF LARGE SCALE LIFT/A COUPLED JET OVERLAYING THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. HERE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET CORE AND THE LEFT EXIT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM MAY
PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WILL NEED MONITORING IN FUTURE FORECASTS FOR POSSIBLE
ADJUSTMENTS.

CONCERNING WINDS AND WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES...HAVE USED A BLEND
OF THE NAM/GFS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING SNOW. THE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS MAY WEAKEN AND BREAK THE TOP CRUST LAYER OF THE CURRENT
SNOWPACK ALLOWING FOR SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW ALONG THE GROUND AND
OVER THE HIGHWAYS TUESDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ANOTHER SURGE OF BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED
ABOVE SWINGS THROUGH. THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL SIGNAL THE
COLDEST AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH H85 TEMPS OF -28C SETTLING IN
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE BRISK WINDS IN PLACE...LOW
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 15 BELOW ZERO...WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH DANGEROUS LEVELS...RANGING BETWEEN 30
BELOW AND 42 BELOW ZERO ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES WITH TWO WEAK
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH. PER GFS/ECMWF...A
MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE INITIAL CLIPPER
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND CLIPPER IS FORECAST SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER
THE NORTH AND EAST. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT
INCREASING H5 HEIGHTS WILL APPROACH MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUPPORTING WARMING
AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...GENERALLY 15-20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ






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