Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 170257
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
957 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AGAIN...NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN
TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 2 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 00 UTC WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE THE BLOB OF COOL AIR HOLDING UP
BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN...AND ITS INFLUENCE ON WEDNESDAY WEATHER. TONIGHT IS
PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY EXITING THE
REGION WITH A DRY LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA DRIFTING
EAST. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH CENTRAL. CHOSE BCCONSRAW (WHICH SEEMS
TO FOLLOW THE NAM H850 CLOSER TODAY) AS THE GUIDANCE OF CHOICE
WHICH GAVE HIGHS AROUND 60 FAR NORTH CENTRAL. BUMPED CLOUDS UP TO
PARTLY CLOUDY THERE WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. ELSEWHERE...HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST RANGING TO AROUND 60 NORTH CENTRAL. DRY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE DAKOTAS. OPTED
TO KEEP THURSDAY AFTERNOON DRY WITH MODELS INDICATING A VERY
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE DESPITE INCREASING CAPE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND SHIFT WITH A SFC TROUGH PASSAGE ALSO
LOOKS TO NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z. RIDGE PUSHES TO THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A PACIFIC TROUGH WORKS TOWARDS THE ROCKIES.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS PATTERN TRANSITION
AND AS A SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS MAY MATERIALIZE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
MAINTAINED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH RESULTING IN SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY -
TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH WITH VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE. THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE
AT KMOT BETWEEN 14-18 UTC WEDNESDAY...WHEN MVFR STRATUS MAY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD





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