Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 250923
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
323 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES TODAY.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED AT THE BORDER OF
MANITOBA/ONTARIO/MINNESOTA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WESTWARD
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NEAR GRAND FORKS TO BISMARCK TO HETTINGER.
A LARGE LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS WAS BEHIND THE FRONT AND
WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH AND REMAIN OVER THE STATE FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS.

ATTENTION TURNS TO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE SCATTERED AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING EAST ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
IMPULSES MOVING EAST IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE ONLY SITE THAT
REPORTED LIGHT SNOW WAS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AT OAKES. FARTHER
WEST A LARGER STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP...AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME EMERGES INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH...AND ONLY THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF NORTH
DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO RECEIVE MEASURABLE LIGHT SNOW - NOW LOOKING
LIKE LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE BOWMAN AREA. THUS HAVE LOWERED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...THOUGH KEPT CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER THIS MORNING...THEN REDUCED CHANCES TO SLIGHT CHANCE
THIS AFTERNOON.

THUS A CLOUDY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...AND A CHANCE OF FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.
HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S SOUTH.

CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. LOWS FROM JUST BELOW
ZERO IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL TO THE TEENS SOUTH OF JAMESTOWN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CATEGORIZED BY MOSTLY DRY AND MUCH
COLDER WEATHER. 00Z MODELS AND GEFS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN...INITIALLY SHOWING CUTOFF LOW APPROACHING HUDSON
BAY AND BROAD TROUGH OVER NORTH AMERICA. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF CUTOFF LOW WILL SUPPORT CHANCE OF
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AND REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR MAINLY SOUTHWEST ND ON SUNDAY
AS FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE STRONG SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WITH 1056MB HIGH CENTERED FROM
MONTANA TO WESTERN ND BY 06Z TUE. SURFACE HIGH TO OUR WEST WILL
SUPPORT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS FROM LATE WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY
HELPING WIND CHILLS REACH VERY LOW LEVELS. THE CURRENT FORECAST
SHOWS WIND CHILLS LOWER THAN 25 BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD SEE MAJORITY OF CWA HAVING WIND CHILLS IN 25 BELOW
ZERO TO 30 BELOW RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

AT 06Z...CEILINGS WERE VFR NORTH AT KISN-KMOT WITH CLEAR SKIES.
KBIS-KDIK-KJMS VFR AT THE MOMENT. A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WAS ENTERING THE NORTHERN
BORDER OF NORTH DAKOTA...THUS BEGAN KISN/KMOT MVFR WITH CONDITIONS
VARYING FROM MVFR TO IFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...WITH STRATUS AND ISOLATED FLURRIES DOMINATING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT
AFTER 06Z FOR KDIK WHERE CIGS AND/OR VIS WILL DROP TO IFR. STRATUS
AND ISOLD -SHSN PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL ARRIVE AT THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF KDIK-KBIS-KJMS AROUND 09Z-11Z. CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN MAINLY IFR-MVFR
WITH STRATUS AND ISOLATED FLURRIES. SCATTERING TO VFR AFT 00Z AT
KISN/KMOT AND AFT 02Z-03Z FOR KDIK/KBIS. MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS
REMAINING AT KJMS A BIT LONGER.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...JV







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