Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 241743
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1243 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAIN UPDATE WAS TO DELAY ONSET OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD/NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD BRING SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. FARTHER EAST TOWARDS BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN A
FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR WITH VERY LIGHT RADAR RETURNS MOVING
NORTH/NORTHWEST. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER
THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ONLY MINOR CHANGE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST RAISING HOURLY PRECIP CHANCES
AS CURRENT RADAR LOOPS INDICATING SHOWERS FINALLY REACHING INTO THE
FAR SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL OF SIOUX COUNTY. OTHERWISE
ONLY MINOR HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND WIND ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. LOWERED DEWPOINT/RH VALUES IN THE FAR NORTH FOR THIS AFTERNOON
USING SHORT TERM MODELS AND TREND THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF LOWER RH
AND DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE NORTHERN TIER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK BASED ON THE NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...AS
INDICATED BY SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

RAIN WILL FINALLY MAKE IT INTO NORTH DAKOTA TODAY/TONIGHT.

THE POTENT TROUGH ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST HAS BEEN SLOWER TO
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED. WITH THE
LATEST (00 UTC) RUNS THERE IS STILL A FAIR BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO RAIN AMOUNTS. THANKFULLY THEY ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIP TODAY/TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THE AREA OF
LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH NORTH AND MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT AND SCATTERED AS THE
MAIN AREA OF FORCING (SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW) REMAINS SOUTH
INTO NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...LATER TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
PROPAGATE NORTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SHOULD PUT SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION TO RECEIVE SOME WIDESPREAD
MODERATE RAIN. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 WILL SEE THE MOST PRECIPITATION...WITH TOTALS
ANYWHERE FROM HALF AN INCH TO AS MUCH AS ONE INCH OF RAINFALL. THE
LATEST TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM HIGH-RES AND GLOBAL MODELS IS A
FURTHER SOUTH TRACK THAT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAVE NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA HIGH AND DRY. BUT...THERE HAS BEEN A GREAT MANY ALTERATIONS
FROM ONE MODEL RUN TO THE NEXT...SO THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS PRECIPITATION TIMING AND LOCATION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DELAYS IN PRECIPITATION ONSET FROM PAST FORECASTS
RESULTED IN REDUCTION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE. THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY THE HIRES MODEL SUITE AND
THE 00 UTC GFS. THE ECMWF AND SREF MEAN...HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO MOVE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE FORECAST
ALSO REDUCES CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY AS THE
BEST INSTABILITY IS NOW FORECAST TO LARGELY REMAIN SOUTH.

THEREAFTER...CONTINUATION OF THE VERY ACTIVE PATTERN IS SUPPORTED
BY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/GEM GLOBAL...BUT TIMING OF MIDDLE LEVEL
IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE BROAD WESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KMOT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KDIK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...AND BECOME IFR AFT AROUND 03Z IN RAIN AND FOG.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KBIS/KJMS BETWEEN 00Z-03Z
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND FOG AT KBIS/KJMS MAINLY AFT 06Z.
SOME LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AT KDIK...AND THIS EVENING AT KBIS/KJMS. PRECIPITATION
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...JV



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