Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 031239
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
639 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 634 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Areas of fog have developed mainly over south central North
Dakota, but will leave the mention also in the west as a few obbs
have gone up and down over the past few hours. Have also advanced
timing a bit of the snow coming in from eastern Montana, as it is
moving a bit faster than previously thought.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Current surface analysis places low over southern Alberta with
trough dropping through eastern Montana towards the Black Hills.
High remains over the central plains into the midwest. Upper level
analysis places short wave sliding through central into eastern
Montana producing some light snow. Over our area, skies have
gradually been clearing over western locations with some fog
developing, while cloud cover lingers over the east.

For today...areas of fog will dissipated by mid-morning as
aforementioned short wave continues its approach. Areas of snow
will develop and push over the area today into this evening,
although accumulations should remain on the light side.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 314 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Weak ridging between systems will bring dry conditions during the
day on Sunday. Our first real shot of cold air for the season
will start to push into the area on Monday as a surface low
deepens over the plains and lifts over Manitoba/Ontario allowing
an arctic airmass to pour into the region. This will also bring a
good chance for snow through the area with modest isentropic lift
to start followed by enhanced broad scale lift from trough
swinging around upper low to the north. Temperatures will fall
through the day on Tuesday as cold air continues to pour in, while
breezy conditions will contribute to bringing frigid wind chill
values, particularly Tuesday night/early Wednesday where readings
as low as 30 below are expected. Frigid airmass remains over the
area through remainder of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 634 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Over western locations localized LIFR cigs and vis will be
possible early this morning in fog, otherwise VFR conditions are
expected. Over eastern locations MVFR cigs will continue through
mid-morning, improving to VFR at all sites later in the morning.
Light snow is possible at KISN later this morning into early this
afternoon and KMOT in the afternoon possibly reducing vis.
Ceilings are expected to fall once again Saturday night.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS


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