Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 281017
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
417 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FREEZING
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AND A CONTINUED CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN MONTANA SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
EMBEDDED MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
AT THE MOMENT...INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY TO RESULT IN AN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING WITH THE WAVE EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM
WESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ND. WARM/ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT
COUPLED WITH WELL BELOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN A SWATH
OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FROM WILLISTON TO DICKINSON...EAST TO
GARRISON AND BISMARCK. WE OPTED TO GO WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT DUE TO THE RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF THE FREEZING
RAIN...ROUGHLY 2-3 HOURS...AND AMOUNTS MUCH LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH. SHOULD SEE THIS AREA OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/MIX EXIT OFF
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY 15Z WITH THE EMBEDDED S/WV.

WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...BUT
ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE ANYMORE EXPECTED WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS.

WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND 10-20 DEGREES COMPARED TO
THANKSGIVING DAY. ALREADY 37F AT BOWMAN! COLD FRONT THEN STARTS
TO MOVE SOUTH AFTER 06Z BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.

WITH WARM AIR ALOFT ADVANCING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SEE A
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN OVER THOSE AREAS WHERE THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL HOLD TRUE FOR
LATE TONIGHT AS WELL. WE SHOULD BE DRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT SOUTH...WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS FOR LIGHT SNOW OR A
MIX ACROSS THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

THE LONG TERM STARTS WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH AND FREEZING RAIN SOUTH. THIS AS A SURFACE
LOW AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION CROSS NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
MORNING. BY AFTERNOON THE LOW IS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD
FAVOR A CARRYOVER OF FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY...FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION LOOK HIGH...AMOUNTS LOOK LOW...ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY IF
LATER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE THAN THAT FEW HUNDREDTHS. AT THIS
POINT...WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ONGOING FOR POCKETS OF
FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING EARLY THIS FRIDAY MORNING...WILL NOT
CONFUSE THE ISSUE WITH ONE FOR SATURDAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR USHERS IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES FROM
TIME TO TIME. BY LATE WEEK MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE
EXPECTED AS THE CENTER OF THE COLD POOL OVER HUDSONS BAY SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING MORE ZONAL FLOW INTO THE DAKOTAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER KMOT-KJMS-KISN THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST OVER KDIK-KBIS.
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR KBIS-KDIK-KJMS THIS
MORNING...AND FOR KISN-KMOT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...NH




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