Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 020619
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1219 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1218 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Only updated
with current observations.

UPDATE Issued at 923 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Current forecast on track with mention of patchy fog, intermittent
freezing drizzle for central ND, and slight chances of light snow.
Current model runs continue to hint at isolated sprinkles/flurries
through tonight.

UPDATE Issued at 639 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

No major changes were made to the forecast.

Intermittent light patchy freezing drizzle continues to fall over
central areas of the ND. Chances for light freezing drizzle and
light snow will continue through the overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Concerns for the short term involve the patchy freezing drizzle
across the central and east with some patchy fog tonight.

Recent widespread snow across west and portions of central North
Dakota creating a cooled and moist boundary layer that will remain
in place in the presence of a weak pressure gradient across
the region. Weak h500 flow aloft will support fog formation with
generally stagnant flow.

Lack of seeder-feeder ice crystals will also support some patchy
freezing drizzle through the night north and east. Overnight lows
just a few degrees lower than temperatures this afternoon.

Not much change Friday as patchy to areas of fog continue through
the morning at least through noon. Will not mention freezing
drizzle as bufkit soundings appear to dissipate the weak low level
vertical motion that seems to be supporting the drizzle Thursday
afternoon. Highs friday in the 20s to around 30.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 222 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Main concern in the long term continues to be the arrival of the
first arctic outbreak of the year beginning early next week.
While there is still uncertainty on the extent and intensity of
the cold air there seems to be some consistency in ushering in
the fist taste of the cold air by Monday night. Snow is also
expected to fall along with the cold air Monday and Tuesday with
some accumulations possible.

The main concern will be the cold temperatures and wind chills
Tuesday through Thursday. High temperatures will be 5 to 10 above
and lows 5 to 10 below with much colder air building north in
western Canada that may yet make its appearance later in December.
Wind chills in the 15 to 30 below range Tuesday night through
Wednesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1218 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Generally MVFR conditions are expected at all sites through the
morning hours. Occasional dips into IFR are possible, especially if
fog develops later tonight. Patchy freezing drizzle and snow
flurries are also possible tonight...mainly at KBIS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ



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