Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 230703

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
103 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Issued at 1255 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Latest HRRR runs have cut back somewhat on the areal coverage of
fog tonight keeping the fog across the southwest mainly. So far
seeing some fog in Backer and Miles city along the edge of the
clouds. Current forecast looks good.

UPDATE Issued at 922 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Main change was to increase minimum temps slightly across the
southwest, where extensive low clouds were keeping temps in check
and above previous forecast hourly temps. No fog being reported as
of 03Z across the area with web cams also looking clear. Latest
runs of high res models are not as aggressive with fog across
the southwest, slower with development and not as expansive. Will
therefore hold the course with patchy fog wording.

UPDATE Issued at 635 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Increased sky cover and winds across the southwest to better match
obs and satellite. Solid deck of low clouds currently in place
across the entire area. Otherwise, forecast on track. High res
models continue to show fog expanding across the southwest
overnight. Not seeing any reports of lower visibility yet and
webcams look mostly clear across the area, but will continue to


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 244 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Clouds and fog continue to plague North Dakota. A brief reprieve
from the fog today will give way to upslope flow and redevelopment
tonight across southwest North Dakota. An approaching wave and
moist return flow will keep the area socked in with clouds through
the day Monday. Temperatures will struggle to climb into the upper
20s. As a surface trough moves into the western Dakotas Monday
afternoon, light snow will develop across far southern North
Dakota. This snow is expected to slowly develop and push north

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

The focus for the long term will be snow across southern North
Dakota Monday night and Tuesday. The latest GEFS plumes indicate
a snow range between 2 and 4 inches along and south of Interstate
94. Overall the latest guidance is slightly further north and more
moist. Some of the deterministic models get a little more robust
with snow totals across far southern North Dakota, but will hold
off on any headline mention at this time due to wide spread
between model solutions and uncertainty.

Cloudy skies will likely continue through Thursday. Finally by
Friday into the weekend stronger low to mid level flow will sweep
the clouds and moisture out of the area as the west coast ridge
edges into the Northern Plains.

Temperatures this week will be mostly normal to above normal with
highs in the 20s to lower 30s Monday and Tuesday...teens and 20s
Wednesday and Thursday...then back into the 20s to around 30 for
the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1255 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Large swath of stratus remains over all of North Dakota and much
of northeast and eastern Montana. Widespread MVFR will persist
through the 06z TAF period at all taf site except KDIK where IFR
to LOW IFR will prevail.




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