Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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290
FXUS63 KBIS 271743
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1243 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Updated forecast soundings across western and central North Dakota
revealed a potential for convection at all sites. Therefore this
update we added a slight chance mention of thundershowers for
the afternoon and early evening hours for areas where there had been
no mention of a chance (namely the southwest and south central).
Chances of 25 to 50 percent for showers and thundershowers remains
across northern counties and also in the James River Valley.
Scattered thunderstorms in eastern South Dakota were lifting
northward as a result of upper level impulses moving northward
associated with another upper level low in the central plains.

UPDATE Issued at 946 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Fog has dissipated nearly all areas...and expect through this hour
that all locales should be fog free. No big changes needed and
blended hourly temperature trends to the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 631 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

No significant changes required other than to blend to observed
trends through 11 UTC. Maintained a thunderstorm free forecast
for today southwest and south central where mid 30s to mid 40s dew
points are in place this morning, with little airmass exchange
forecast today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Morning fog, possibly dense, and the redevelopment of showers and
some thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening highlight the short
term.

For the near term period now through mid morning, areas of fog,
possibly dense, will be monitored for portions of western and south
central North Dakota. This is associated with a clear/dry slot and
calm surface winds. The latest HRRR shows fog, and an elevated stratus
layer above the surface. This may be a combination of low clouds
along with patchy dense fog. This is expected to dwindle by 15z.

Mid to upper level closed low per water vapor imagery seen
circulating over the Turtle Mountains slowly opens up today and
meanders into southern Manitoba this afternoon. Theme from the
past several days with cyclonic flow and cold pool of air aloft
with instability being maximized in the afternoon and early
evening will continue today. However, cape and shear are both
weaker this afternoon as compared to Thursday. Expect the sky to
once again cloud up with daytime heating with an increasing cumulus
field. The highest pops will reside in the north closer to the
700mb upper low, with decreasing chances south. No severe weather
anticipated given the environmental conditions mentioned above.
The showers and thunderstorms will diminish with sunset this
evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

The overall message of chances for showers and thunderstorms
remains unchanged. However, confidence for the most widespread
event and potentially severe event is Monday afternoon west, then
transitioning into central North Dakota Monday night into Tuesday.
The driest days appear to be Sunday and Thursday.

Timing of shortwaves and associated showers and thunderstorms
prior to Monday per GFS and ECMWF suggest that a mid level
shortwave will shift from eastern Montana into western and central
ND Saturday evening and night. Thunderstorms that develop Saturday
afternoon west will propagate into central North Dakota Saturday
night while weakening with time. This shortwave exits Sunday
morning, with a mid level transitory ridge amplifying over
central ND for a mainly dry day Sunday into Monday morning.

A closed mid and upper level low approach Monday and slowly moves
east across western and central ND Tuesday through Wednesday.
Severe potential ahead of the system Monday afternoon through
Tuesday morning as mentioned above. This is followed by a dry
slot, then cooler air with rain showers on the back side of the
system Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Mainly VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and evening,
with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Confidence
in the shower and thunderstorm activity is highest at KISN and
KMOT, where we included a VCTS in the TAFs during the afternoon,
and at KJMS, where a VCSH was carried tonight. Finally, MVFR and
IFR ceilings are likely in northwest and north central ND tonight
and Saturday morning.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
AVIATION...CJS



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