Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 250519
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1219 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Surface high pressure was over the border of western ND and Montana.
Meanwhile the main upper level trough was over the US Rockies with
the low center over western Wyoming. The models are indicating some
upper level impulses ejecting northeastward from Colorado and
eastern Wyoming, reaching southern ND before daybreak on Monday.
These energy impulses continue during the daytime Monday as the
upper low lifts northeast into eastern Montana this afternoon, and
the western Dakotas Monday night. Thus will keep the mention of
slight chance of showers southwest before daybreak, expanding to a
bit better chances of showers after daybreak in most of the west and
central parts of North Dakota.

Current forecast has a good handle on precip chances as well as
light northwest winds early this morning and overnight lows from the
upper 30s west to mid/upper 40s in the James Valley.

UPDATE
Issued at 956 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Removed precipitation mention for this evening, maintained a
chance southwest overnight. Sky cover was tweaked based on latest
satellite imagery with partial clearing occurring west. High res
models redevelop clouds across the west overnight. Not certain
this will happen. Otherwise the forecast remains valid.

UPDATE
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Scaled back further on POPs, otherwise no major changes to the
inherited forecast for tonight. Updated hourly trends with
observations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Cool and wet weather continues late this afternoon and evening
with light rain continuing to taper off and push eastward. Most of
state remains on cold side of surface low currently located near
far southeast ND. WV imagery shows deep upper trough centered over
northern Utah with good fetch of moisture continuing to stream
northward into the central and eastern Dakotas. RAP analysis
shows several weak embedded shortwaves in the flow, helping
support a few pockets of light rain across central ND, with best
forcing over eastern ND associated with upper level 120kt jet
right entrance region.

High res models are in decent agreement with rain continuing to
diminish across our area through the afternoon and evening. Will
be another cool night with lows in mid 30s west to low 40s east.
NBM initialized sky cover well this afternoon, including decreased
clouds just northwest of our area, so blended cloud cover forecast
toward NBM for overnight sky cover, which gives some clearing
across the northwest, which could enhance cooling. Have included
patchy frost across portions of the west.

Increased pops across southwest and central ND on Monday as upper
level trough across the west lifts east/northeastward with trough
axis across eastern Montana by 00z Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Continued low pops into Tuesday morning as trough lifts east of
the Dakotas by 00z Wed, while upper level ridge develops across
the western CONUS, putting the Northern Plains in northwest flow
by Tuesday night. Dry weather then expected until late Wed
night/Thursday as embedded shortwave in cyclonic flow aloft
brushes mainly northern and eastern parts of the state, with low
pops in place. Upper ridge migrates eastward late in week,
supporting a warming trend. Early week high temps remain in the
50s with a warming trend to the 60s by Wednesday and approaching
70 by Sat/Sun as ridge axis moves overhead.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

The longwave trough over the Rockies this morning, with upper level
impulses moving in from the base of the trough reaching ND before
daybreak Monday should keep mostly cloudy skies across
the region through Monday night. The latest iterations of the short
term high res models indicate that KISN should remain VFR through
the taf period. VFR/MVFR ceilings over southern and north central ND
should become MVFR/IFR during the early morning hours, improving to
MVFR Monday afternoon. KMOT and KDIK may become VFR by late
afternoon. Models continue MVFR ceilings at KBIS/KJMS through Monday
night.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...JV


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