Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 021950
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
250 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

QUIET WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...A BLEND
WAS USED FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY...WITH OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY OTHER
THAN A WEAKER WIND FIELD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY WILL PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COOL IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S INTO
TUESDAY.

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN STARTS TO MATERIALIZE LATER ON TUESDAY WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF AN EMBEDDED LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WYOMING ROCKIES INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING
IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SPREAD EASTWARD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL ALLOWING SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS THEN SHOW A
TRANSITORY RIDGE SOMETIME FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT REPLACED WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ACTIVE
WEATHER PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE
70S TO 80S FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH NO BIG WARMUPS OR
COOLDOWNS ON THE HORIZON.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CUMULUS FIELDS ACROSS NORTHWEST...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND FADE WITH
SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD



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