Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 140340
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
940 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.UPDATE...

Issued at 940 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

No deviations from the forecast for this update. A few high clouds
north otherwise a clear sky this evening.


UPDATE
Issued at 703 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Forecast for tonight remains on track. Winds winding down
diminishing the threat for blowing snow for the remainder of this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)

Issued at 404 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

The start of milder temperatures will be the main forecast
highlight in the short term period.

Currently, split flow aloft over North America with deep low
pressure off the southern CA coast and weak upper level troughing
over central Canada. Weak west-northwesterly flow aloft over the
Northern Plains with a surface ridge from the western Great Lakes
extending back west across northern SD and into central MT.
Resultant low level flow regime is west/southwesterly across
west/central North Dakota. Return flow winds rather robust in some
areas and are creating some local travel hazards with blowing and
drifting snow. Reports have been localized so have not issued any
products to specifically address. Very nice temperature recovery
from yesterday, 15-25 degrees warmer this afternoon compared to 24
hours ago.

Mostly clear conditions continue tonight with a steady west
surface wind. While weak if not neutral temperature advection,
an increase in boundary layer moisture (dewpoints) and a 5-10 mph
steady west wind should keep temperatures from bottoming out
despite a clear sky, with forecast overnight lows ranging from
around zero to the single digits below. Good news, no wind chill
concerns/headlines tonight or in the immediate future!

Westerly flow aloft Saturday will help steer mild Pacific air
closer to North Dakota. A sunny sky coupled with a southwest wind
at 5-10 mph will bring a similar day temperature wise compared to
today, a few degrees warmer north and east with highs there in the
teens with near 25 southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)

Issued at 404 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Moderating temperatures and dry conditions through the middle of
next week continue to highlight the extended forecast. Active
weather may return towards the end of next week.

Split flow aloft ends early next week. Upper level low ejecting
through the Central Plains merges with an Alberta Clipper moving
southeast across the Northern Plains. GFS/EC mainly dry across
North Dakota as the clipper moves across our region, though enough
forcing to keep an eye on. Winds associated with this system may
be an issue depending on how its associated surface trough
evolves. For now left in model blended winds which appear to be
too low. CAA accompanies this system so some temperature
modification in the forecast (lowering) may be warranted between
this product issuance and then.

Broad ridging follows and will maintain dry conditions and bring
robust WAA into the region through Thursday favoring a strong
warming trend with forecast highs warming to the 30s to near 40 by
mid-week.

Both the GFS and EC depict a long wave trough amplifying over the
western CONUS Thursday night, with the base of the trough then
lifting north-northeast and strengthening as it approaches and
moves into the Northern Plains during the Friday-Saturday
timeframe. Very uncertain at this point in time but will need to
be monitored closely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)

Issued at 404 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...Heinert
LONG TERM...Heinert
AVIATION...Heinert



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