Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 241503
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1003 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THIS MORNING IS PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
PLACEMENT.

CURRENT RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PRECIPITATION BAND
LIFTING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 2 ARE GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...ALONG HIGHWAY 2
AND CERTAINLY TO THE NORTH...WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THIS MORNING FOR
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND REPORTS FROM
AROUND STANLEY TO MINOT ARE VERIFYING THE FREEZING RAIN. LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF THE FREEZING RAIN
TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FROM STANLEY AND
TIOGA NORTH TO BOWBELLS...KENMARE...SHERWOOD AND WESTHOPE...AND
POSSIBLY TO BOTTINEAU AND BELCOURT. IN THE FAR NORTHWEST THINK THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR HAS WORKED
INTO THIS AREA. PRECIPITATION IS ALSO TRANSITIONING TO FROM RAIN
TO SNOW OVER THE FAR WEST CENTRAL.

HAVE UPDATED WEATHER/POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND UTILIZED THE
12 UTC NAM FOR TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO DETERMINE PRECIPITATION TYPE.
AGAIN MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IS A GOOD REPRESENTATION
OF WHERE WE WILL HAVE PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. NO
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT ADVISORY BUT WILL LOOK OVER FOR SOME
WORDING CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

COMPLEX SYSTEM IMPACTING NORTH DAKOTA. FIRST SURGE OF MOISTURE
RESULTING IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS THE PRECIP
AREA MOVES NORTHWEST IT IS LIKELY THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN NORTHWEST. SO FAR CURRENT FORECAST IS TRENDING OK AND
WILL UPDATE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE HAZARDOUS
WINTER WEATHER AND STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WAA PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
RAIN CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MY
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. INCREASED POPS FOR THIS
AREA. AS THESE ECHOS PUSH FARTHER NORTH...THEY WILL MOVE OVER
AREAS WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO BELOW 32F SO A
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL ECHOS ACROSS
MY NORTHWEST NEAR A SFC TROUGH AXIS AND IS FREEZING RAIN WITH
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 20S AND THE WARM LAYER ALOFT PROJECTED TO BE
AROUND +4C.

00Z AND NOW 06Z MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONGER CAA THAN WHAT
WAS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH THE
SFC LOW TAKING MORE OF AN EASTERN TRACK...LIFTING NORTHEAST
TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.
COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL SURGE IN BEHIND THE LOW INTO NORTHWESTERN
ND AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING...WITH THE CAA EXPANDING EAST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LAST FORECAST ISSUANCE THE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED DOWN TO BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS MY WEST
AND NORTH AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS. THINKING WE WILL NOT WARM UP
MUCH AT ALL WITH THE CAA COUPLED WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
THIS CHANGE BUT MORE-SO THE STRONGER CAA RESULTED IN MORE SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE NORTH. WITH MODELS SUGGESTING AROUND 0.5" OF QPF...SNOW
RATIOS WILL SUPPORT 3-5" OF SNOW ACROSS MY NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH
CENTRAL. LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH AND EAST WHERE WARMER AIR WILL
LINGER LONGEST AND WHERE LIGHTER QPF AMOUNTS ARE SHOWN.

WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS...WHERE WE ARE
FORECASTING 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND/OR
FREEZING RAIN HAZARDS THIS MORNING.

AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST TODAY...STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MY SOUTHWEST...AND WILL
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY THERE. MAV/GFS DEFINITELY STRONGER THAN THE
NAM OR EC. DAY CREW WILL WANT TO MONITOR IN CASE THE WIND ADVISORY
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED IN CASE THE MAV/GFS IS MORE CORRECT.

CHILLY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S AND WINDS
REMAINING BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SNOW LINGERS NORTH AND
EAST...BUT SHOULD END WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A 500MB RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THAT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN US BY WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE EAST
TO BRING MILDER TEMPERATURE TRENDS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE
WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE THE RESIDUAL EFFECTS OF THE
DEPARTING STORM. ONE EFFECT...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO
40 MPH...WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT THE THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THEN
AFTER WEDNESDAY...AS THE 500MB RIDGE APPROACHES WE WILL SEE A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND THAT WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE 50S AND 60S FOR
HIGHS BY SATURDAY. THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FRO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. FOR
PRECIPITATION THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE GENERALLY SPARSE
PRECIPITATION. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1003 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH RAIN/SNOW/FREEZING RAIN
SPREADING INTO THE AREA TODAY AND PERSISTING TONIGHT. FREEZING
RAIN ONLY EXPECTED AT KMOT AS KISN HAS NOW SWITCHED TO SNOW AND
REMAINING AERODROMES WILL REMAIN TOO WARM. WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND
DEVELOPING TODAY INTO THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>011.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH





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