Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 181812
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
112 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

AS OF 18 UTC...CONVECTION IS INCREASING ACROSS THE I-94 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN BISMARCK AND VALLEY CITY. THIS CONFIRMS THE PATTERN OF THE
16 UTC HRRR...OF THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...DECREASING TO THE WEST AND NORTH. WEAK SHEAR AND MODEST
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP STORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 904 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WITH DIURNAL HEATING
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE STRETCHED POPS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AS
SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED NEAR LAKE
SAKAKAWEA STRETCHING OFF TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THIS COOL POOL OF AIR ALOFT...IN THE MID
LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL RESULT IN INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSHOWERS TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS...AND IS ALSO HIGH THAT THEY WILL BE
HIT OR MISS. THE CONVECTION WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF PERIODS
OF HARD RAIN. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE AIDED BY SURFACE HEATING SO
THAT ONCE THE SUN GETS CLOSE TO SETTING WILL EXPECT THE CONVECTION
TO BE DECREASING...AND END COMPLETELY BY 9 PM OR SO.

TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY.

AS OF THIS WRITING THERE IS A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE KNIFE RIVER NEAR
HAZEN AFFECTING MERCER AND OLIVER COUNTIES. A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE APPLE CREEK IN BURLEIGH COUNTY...WITH
MENOKEN BEING THE FORECAST POINT ON THAT CREEK. SEE THOSE PRODUCTS
AND SERVICES ON THE NWS BISMARCK WEB PAGE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS.
CLICK ON THE RIVERS AND LAKES TAB.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 CDT MON AUG 18 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS FAST MOVING RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. UPPER FLOW THEN SHIFTS SOUTHWESTERLY
TUESDAY EVENING AS THE FIRST POTENT SHORT WAVE STARTS TO APPROACH
THE AREA...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. UNSETTLED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THEN REMAINS OVER THE AREA BRINGING CONTINUED OCCASIONAL CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS
TRIES TO WORK INTO THE REGION BRINGING A DIP DOWN TO BELOW AVERAGE
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WITH
DAILY HEATING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.
EMBEDDED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD






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