Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 191122
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
622 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

ONLY CHANGE WITH THE UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE FOG FROM FORECAST. NO
INDICATIONS OF FOG WITH OBS...SATELLITE OR WEBCAMS. THEREFORE
REMOVED PATCHY FOG FROM FORECAST. OTHERWISE...A COLD MORNING
ACROSS THE STATE WITH A RECORD LOW OF 25 HIT AT BISMARCK. RECENT
OBS HAD TEMPS AS LOW AS 21 AT HAZEN...GLEN ULLIN AND CENTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST CHALLENGE IS FOG. CALM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE VALLEYS OF THE JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVERS.

A STATEWIDE FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MID
MORNING TUESDAY...WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS FALLING INTO THE 20S.
CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN FAVOR FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS LOWS DIP INTO THE 30S.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS WITHIN THE CURRENT MODEL SUITE ON SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AS A REX
BLOCKING PATTERN...LOCATED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. AND
CANADA...STALEMATES THE FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS
DEEP UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN CONUS APPROACHES THE REGION WITH
SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. MODEL
DIFFERENCES INCREASE WITH QPF OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GFS CONTINUING
ITS TREND OF BEING THE MORE NORTHWARD SOLUTION AND MUCH WETTER ON
SUNDAY THAN ECMWF. FORECAST CONTINUES TO CARRY CHANCE/LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH PART OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. ALSO INCLUDED
MENTION OF THUNDER WITH INSTABILITY INDICATED BY MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...AC



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