Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 201716

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1116 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Issued at 1114 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

No major changes required. Bumped up temperatures a few degrees.

UPDATE Issued at 852 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

So far current forecast trending ok with no changes.

UPDATE Issued at 623 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Mid and high level clouds continue to stream across western and
central ND this morning. The exception being the far northwest.
Temperatures her are in the teens and lower 20s, and mainly 30s
elsewhere. Updated morning low temperatures after populating
latest temperatures and interpolated to mid-morning values.

Some light returns tracking east along the ND/SD border. 12 UTC
sounding shows mid level moisture has increased but atmosphere
remains dry from the surface to around 8kft. May be a stray
sprinkle or flurry along the border today but not significant
enough to include a pop in the forecast.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 151 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Quiet period weather wise in the short term period. Latest radar
and satellite loop a pretty widespread band of mid and high level
clouds streaming across western and central ND. There are a few
light reflectivities showing up along and south of I94 but dry
atmosphere below these will inhibit most if not all hydrometeors
reaching the ground. Higher reflectivities remain, and will stay
south of the state today and tonight.

Weak upper level ridging and confluent flow will keep things
quiet across the forecast area today. Generally weak surface
pressure pattern and a light west to southwest flow is expected
today. This doesn`t typically lend itself to fog problems but some
models, most notably the NAM are indicating increasing low level
moisture and possible fog/stratus tonight.

Temperatures today are expected to be a little cooler than Friday
with highs mainly in the 30s, but some 40s possible south,
depending on the amount of sunshine today. Neutral to slight very
slight cold advection, and a warm start to the day were reasons to
bump up temperatures a few degrees over our given guidance. We
should see some melting today and with a light surface flow
tonight, the potential does exist for some patchy fog development.
At this time the NAM is hitting the fog hardest tonight, with the
GFS and RAP not as aggressive. Will hold of on a mention of fog at
this time but certainly something we`ll pass to the day shift.
Other than the potential for fog, quiet tonight with lows around
10 north to 20 south.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 151 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Quiet weather pattern to begin the long term period. Weak surface
flow pattern may yield itself to possible fog problems Sunday and
Monday. Otherwise it looks quiet with seasonable temperatures.

A weak clipper system drops southeast through the area on Tuesday
and may bring some light snow. Currently a blend of model guidance
is bringing just a slight chance to parts of the north Tuesday
afternoon. Hardly worth mentioning at this time.

Behind this system, strong upper ridging builds over the norther
plains, downstream of another upper trough that moves onto the
west coast Wednesday night. Energy looks to split as it comes on-
shore and we see a mild day on Thursday before we cool down and
see increasing precipitation chances on Friday as the northern
stream energy traverses the northern plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

VFR at all sites through the majority of TAF period. Some low CIGS
and fog are possible late tomorrow morning at KMOT/KJMS.




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