Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 192045
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
245 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM IS LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND GUSTY
WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATER OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA
CONTINUES TO CREATE BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKE.

A 10 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE...AND A DOWN SLOP
COMPONENT TO THE WIND...HAS KEPT WINDS RATHER BREEZY AND GUSTY
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS WERE RECORDED ALONG
THE JAMES VALLEY. WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER SUNSET.

LATEST SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A MARKED DECREASE IN CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DRIER AIR WITH SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE CLOUDS ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS A WELCOME WARM UP THIS WEEKEND
AND ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL LATE WEEKEND.

THE REST OF WEEK WILL BE RATHER DRY AND BENIGN WITH A WARMING TREND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
SHIFTS TO A ZONAL/SOUTHWEST FLOW.

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE 12 UTC ECMWF/GFS KEEPS
THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GUSTY WINDS
COULD COMBINE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW TO CREATE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD.

SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT KBIS WITH ISOLATED FLURRIES OVER THE REMAINING
TERMINALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. VSBYS MAY DROP TO BETWEEN 4SM
AND 6SM MILES AT KDIK AND KBIS FOR SHORT DURATIONS. WITH THE
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND SCATTER AT KMOT/KJMS AND EVENTUALLY
AT LIFT TO LOW VFR AT THE REMAINING AERODROMES BETWEEN 21Z AND
06Z THURSDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AJ





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