000
FXUS63 KBIS 171145
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
645 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST TODAY. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATES THIS MORNING
WERE TO BRING THE CLOUD COVER FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING...AND TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF FOG ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL. ALSO UPDATED MORNING LOWS AS THE CLOUDS KEPT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL...WHILE CLEAR
SKIES IN THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP A BIT LOWER
THAN FORECAST. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI
RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS /
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN ISOLATED SHOWER
REMAINS POSSIBLE IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...BUT
EVEN THOSE ARE PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES. THE NEXT H5
WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. SHORT TERM
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST...AS THE WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH END CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH
AND EAST...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST. WILL GO WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY AS WELL WITH MUCAPE VALUES RISING
INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS THE H5 WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE SECONDARY CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE STRATUS. 11-3.9 MICRON
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
MOVING SOUTH. THE 17.00Z NAM CAPTURES THIS AREA WITH INCREASING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE H9-H8 LAYER. THE CLOUDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS MORNING...BUT GRADUALLY BREAK UP ON
THE SOUTH AND WEST PERIPHERY LATER TODAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM NEAR 70 IN THE
NORTH AND EAST...TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE SOUTH AND WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS TO BE MORE AND MORE LIKELY FROM
MID WEEK INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RELATIVELY
TIGHT ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE RIDGE/TROUGH UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THAT TRANSLATES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL UTILIZE A
MODEL BLEND WITH PERSISTENCE FOR MOST FORECAST ELEMENTS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SHIFTS EAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN AN UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN SUPPORTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS WE TRANSITION TO FAVORABLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL LOW. WHILE IT IS STILL EARLY...SEVERE
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS GULF MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

BY SUNDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH PLACE THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN WITH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UNDER THE DRY
SLOT OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...ANY SLOWING IN THE PROGRESSION OF
THE LOW WOULD YIELD ANOTHER DAY OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON SUNDAY.
CURRENT BLEND OF MODELS KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AND WILL LEAVE THIS ALONE FOR NOW AS WE STILL HAVE TIME FOR
THIS SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS HAS BROUGHT MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR CEILINGS TO THE
REGION. THE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THIS MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE AERODROMES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD A TEMPO GROUP TO
THE FORECAST YET. WILL GO WITH VCSH AT KMOT AND KJMS SINCE THEY
APPEAR TO HAVE THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THIS
EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...CK