Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 192053
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
253 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)

Issued at 251 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Forecast highlights in the short term period will be ongoing
winter weather headlines across the south now through Tuesday
morning.

Currently, embedded mid level S/WV trough lifting northeast across
the region interacting with a baroclinic zone to produce
developing snowfall across southwest and far south central North
Dakota early this afternoon.

Snow will continue to spread north and east into this evening,
with the best accumulating snowfall across the south more within
the baroclinic area and where better boundary layer moisture
resides. Winter weather headlines remain valid.

I opted to increase POPs even across the north, more so for a
high POP/low QPF scenario as it will snow just not accumulate as
much south. I also opted to add Hettinger and Grant counties to
the winter weather advisory as latest model output now puts 3 to
maybe 4 inches there along with the rest of my southern counties.
Will keep the expiration times as is, later this evening southwest
and Tuesday morning far south central and southeast. High
pressure currently over far northern ND and into northeastern
Montana will slowly build into western ND this evening, then
across central ND Tuesday morning. Dry air and subsidence
associated with the sfc high combined with decreased mid level
forcing will end snowfall west to east, thus the end times of the
winter weather adv remain in good shape at this time.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)

Issued at 251 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Arctic air moving in with an area of high pressure will bring
another period of bitter cold to the region. Tuesday night and
Wednesday morning will see widespread lows in the double digits
below zero. Combined with a steady westerly wind around 10 mph,
dangerous wind chills as low as 35 below will result, and will
likely need wind chill headlines for most if not all of western
and central North Dakota during that period.

A quasi-zonal flow pattern develops Wednesday through the rest of
the work week, keeping precipitation chances minimal to nothing,
and slowly moderating temperatures with daytime highs into the 20s
by Friday. More of a southwest flow pattern then starts to
materialize next weekend, which should further moderate
temperatures a bit along with perhaps some increase in
precipitation chances.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Snow had begun at Hettinger in far southwest ND with MVFR vsbys but
lower VFR cigs. VFR at all TAF sites at 18z today, but snow with
MVFR cigs and vsbys expected to develop across southwestern ND at
KDIK early this afternoon, then spread north and east into KISN/KBIS
by late afternoon, and reaching KMOT aft 00z and KJMS aft 06z.
Conditions becoming IFR mainly at southern TAF sites of KDIK/KBIS
mainly aft 00z and at KJMS aft 06z. Improving conditions to VFR late
Tuesday morning and into the afternoon.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ Tuesday for
NDZ042-045>048-050-051.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for NDZ040-
041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV



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