Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 262351
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
651 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

With marginal instability and shear available the convective
trends are in a decline across central North Dakota with scattered
popcorn showers ongoing northwest. Latest HRRR follows this trend
as well. Will trend the pops down across the central this
evening. Late tonight several runs of the HRRR develop a line of
showers and thunderstorms across the southwest and moves them east
to south central North Dakota by sunrise. Will refine the pops to
follow this trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

A cold front, currently across far western North Dakota, will
continue to slide eastward through this afternoon and evening.
Ahead of the front skies have cleared and a line of thunderstorms
have developed along an axis of instability (500-1000 J/Kg).
Shear is limited and instability isn`t overly impressive, so
severe storms or organized cells aren`t anticipated at this time.
As instability decreases with sunset, coverage of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to decrease. Southern North Dakota
appears most likely to see showers and thunderstorms overnight as
the main surface low is located over northern South Dakota.

Showers and thunderstorm chances remain across portions of the
James Valley tomorrow as the low lifts northeastward across
the eastern Dakotas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Warmer temperatures and dry conditions will highlight the long
term.

Warm air advection and the presence of a surface trough will boost
temperatures Sunday into the upper 80s and 90s.

Westerly flow aloft and the development of an upper level ridge
will keep most of the Northern Plains warm and dry through next
week. Several waves may ride over the ridge and act to deamplify
the flow by mid/late week. This could once again bring chances of
precipitation back to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

High pressure across the eastern Dakotas will move east tonight.
A trough of low pressure across eastern Montana will be the focus
for scattered thunderstorms tonight. VFR conditions are expected
through the 00Z TAF period. Too much uncertainty to specify
thunderstorms in the TAF at this time so used VCTS in the early
period. Thunderstorms may be possible KDIK-KBIS-KJMS after 08z but
will wait the next TAF issuance for more details.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA



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