000
FXUS63 KBIS 151153
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
653 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

UPDATE TO EXTEND LOWS POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST A BIT LONGER
THIS MORNING. CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN REMAIN LOW WITH DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS. ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

A QUIET DAY TODAY AFTER A DRY AND WINDY DAY ON TUESDAY.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDED FROM HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ROCKIES...ACROSS MONTANA...INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS A ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST
ORIENTATION. WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ENERGY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE BLACK HILLS
AND CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS INDICATE THIS IMPULSE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
EASTWARD...AND SO FAR THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THE
CONVECTION HAS STAYED SOUTH OF THE ND/SD BORDER.

THE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS SLIGHT RIDGING TODAY OVER
EASTERN MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA AS A DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN
ROCKIES. THIS WILL ACT TO KEEP DRY AND MILD WEATHER OVER THE STATE
TODAY. WINDS SHOULD BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER LINKS WITH H800 ALOFT. WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR HIGHS FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO AROUND 80 TODAY.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE PLAINS. THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES REACHES SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT...AND HAVE INTRODUCED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD IN WHICH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE PRECIP
TRENDS/COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO UPPER RIDGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND A TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO
NOSE INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND INSTABILITY NEAR THE BOUNDARY MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE BOUNDARY
MAY LINGER SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE. BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PROVIDING
COOLER AND CONTINUED WET CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO...LOCALLY
HIGHER...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AT RISK FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER AMOUNTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

MAINLY SCATTERED MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AT KISN AND KMOT
TONIGHT..WITH VERY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. LATEST RADAR LOOP
INDICATED SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAD JUST DEVELOPED NORTH OF
THE BLACK HILLS. THIS SHOULD NOT AFFECT KDIK BUT MAY IMPACT KHEI.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
THROUGH DAYBREAK. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 14Z-16Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JV