Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 051001 CCA
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
401 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE FORECAST COMES RIGHT AFTER THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WHICH INCLUDES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A HIGH WIND WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT CONTINUES FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AS HIGH WINDS SUNDAY ALONG
WITH FALLING SNOW MAY LEAD TO POOR VISIBILITIES. SEE THE LONG
TERM DISCUSSION BELOW AND REFER TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR DETAILS
REGARDING THE HIGH WIND WATCH.

FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD/EARLY THIS MORNING...BROKEN AREAS/POCKETS
OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WHERE LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER UNTIL 18Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP INDICATES A SHORTWAVE INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA...WITH A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE SEEN IN SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. THE LOCATION AND
MOVEMENT OF THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FAVORS PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
THE BORDER ACROSS MANITOBA TODAY. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. AFTER
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE EXITS BY MID TO LATE MORNING...EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE OFFSET
SOMEWHAT AS VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
COMMENCES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 20S TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT 17 TO 27.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

ALTHOUGH THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE WIND POTENTIAL HAS RISEN TO THE
POINT WHERE A HIGH WIND WATCH IS JUSTIFIED FOR WESTERN AND MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT IN PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. GFS/NAM TRACK A CLOSED H500 LOW FROM NEAR WILLISTON
SOUTHEAST TO BETWEEN DEVILS LAKE AND JAMESTOWN THEN TO FARGO BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS NORTH OF THIS POSITION AND CLOSES
OFF THE H500 LOW NEAR THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. THIS GIVES MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO THE SNOW POTENTIAL BUT WINDS LOOK MORE LIKELY. SO
HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ADDED MORE
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE WINDS ARE ALSO COMPLEX. A STRONG CHINOOK FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. TYPICALLY THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO LEADS TO SEVERAL HOURS OF
STRONG WINDS IN WARM TO NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION UNTIL
SUNSET. AFTER WHICH THE INVERSION MAY LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS. HOWEVER...QUICKLY FOLLOWING THIS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT SWEEPING ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA GIVING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG GRADIENT AND
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE PRESSURE RISE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLD AIR.

THE AREA OF MOST UNCERTAINTY LIES ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
NORTH TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS AREA
COULD RECEIVE 2 INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH TO 4 OR MORE NORTH IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE IF THE
GFS/NAM BECOME THE PREFERRED MODELS AND THE WINDS SPREAD EAST TO
THIS AREA. SINCE THIS PERIOD IS LATER...MAINLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WILL KEEP THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT GOING. A
VARIETY OF HEADLINES WOULD BE POSSIBLE FROM HIGH WIND WATCH TO
BLIZZARD WATCH. FELT IT BEST TO CONTINUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THIS AREA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH
COLD AIR TO THE EAST YET MILD IN THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 233
AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS WITH PERIODIC
LIGHT SNOW THROUGH 14Z...THEN CIGS WILL LIFT RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. KISN/KMOT WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NDZ001-002-009-010-017>020-031>034-040>045.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NDZ003-011-021-022-035-036-046-047-050.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS


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