Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 061541
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
941 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR SOUTHWEST ND ON LATEST NAM INDICATE A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. RAISED MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO 60 OVER THE SNOW
FREE AREA FAR SOUTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST OTHER THAN
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM/COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHEST IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED WARM
AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL RESIDE IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30MPH
WILL MOSTLY BE FELT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF A CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MEANDERING INTO NORTHEAST BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH A 100KT 300MB JET STREAK WAS
SLIDING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE SHORTWAVE AND JET
STREAK WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...LARGE SCALE ASCENT VIA THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET WILL COINCIDE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
GENERATED ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
BORDER 18Z-00Z SATURDAY. VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
LEADING TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN WILL
RESULT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE JET
STREAK/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...THE DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL BE MAINTAINED LEADING TO CONTINUE
RISING MOTION AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. WILL STILL
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
WITH THE WARMEST AIR IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A NEAR 100KT JET DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THE MAIN
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER OUR CWA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER JET WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA AND
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSLATING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE I-94 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON TIMING BUT EXPECT MAINLY
RAIN. IF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURS A LITTLE EARLIER/LATER IN THE DAY
THE PROBABILITY OF A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW INCREASES. OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
AND WE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NORTHEAST TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS WHICH WAS HINTING AT
A COOL DOWN MID WEEK HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT...BRINGING A
GLANCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST...THEN WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE COLDER AIR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK AND BRINGS AN
EVEN WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK. FOR NOW
WILL UTILIZE A BLEND WHICH KEEPS US MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

EXPECT SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20KT AND GUSTS TO 32KT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY...WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15KT TO 25KT AND CIGS DETERIORATING FROM VFR TO
MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SATURDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS





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