Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 261739

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1239 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Showers continue to develop over southwest North Dakota early
this afternoon and wrap around upper low located along the North
Dakota/Montana border. Expect additional shower/thunderstorm
development in cyclonic flow as the afternoon goes on. Severe
weather is not expected as instability remains rather weak.
Updates have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 925 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Only some patchy fog continues to linger over northern portions of
the area, though the low cloud cover has been a bit reluctant to
lift and dissipate. Therefore, will keep low cloud cover in longer
through the morning into mid-day.

UPDATE Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Overall the forecast is on track and blended to observed trends
through 11 UTC. Issued an SPS for dense fog across northwest North
Dakota this morning. With the sun already risen, visibility
should begin to improve for this areas.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Early this morning an upper level low continued to spin across
northeast Montana as a surface low and trough were centered
across the North Dakota/Canadian border. Along and north of the
trough light showers continued. Just behind the trough low stratus
and fog have developed. The HRRR indicates this fog and stratus
will continue this morning and scatter out by the afternoon. As
the upper level low begins pushing eastward today additional
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across western
North Dakota and spread eastward. Instability is forecast to be
much less than what we experienced on Wednesday. However, steep
lapse rates and moderate forcing could generate some stronger
thunderstorms this afternoon. No severe storms are anticipated,
but some small hail and gusty winds can`t be ruled out across
central North Dakota.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Southwesterly flow will continue across the Northern Plains through
early next week. This will bring a daily chance for showers and
thunderstorms. A closed low is forecast to park right over North
Dakota by the middle of next week. This again will bring good
chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Models are
having a hard time resolving individual waves, so specific timing
of thunderstorms remains challenging.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

IFR conditions in stratus at KISN should improve to VFR early to mid
afternoon. MVFR to VFR at KMOT early this afternoon. Otherwise,
scattered thunderstorms will develop once again across western and
central North Dakota with daytime heating. scattered MVFR stratus
decks are possible late tonight across the area...especially at KISN
and KMOT.


.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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