439
FNUS73 KBIS 100926
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for Cp 6...Usfws
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
426 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on May 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Mild, breezy, and dry conditions will be found across the fire area today.
High clouds could filter in and out all day. A weak front this morning will
bring breezy northwest winds this afternoon. Humidity values could drop
to around 27 percent this afternoon as well. Winds go on a diminishing
trend this evening before becoming southwest tonight. Warm temperatures
will then be found on Saturday, with afternoon humidity values once again
in the mid to upper 20s. Southwest winds will be come a west wind, and may
be breezy in the afternoon. An isolated shower is possible Saturday afternoon
and evening, although chances at this time are around 10 percent.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny to partly cloudy.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 10 mph in the morning becoming
                    10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 15 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (71400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (170400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........21  21  28  32  32  32  23
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............59  62  64  66  67  67  68
RH..............47  38  34  31  28  28  27
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..12  13  14  14  14  14  13
20 FT wind gust.19  20  20  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...4.2 6.8 7.5 7.7 7.9 7.9 7.8
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.20  23  25  25  24  24  23
Haines index....4   4   4   5   5   6   6
Dispr kt-ft/1K..71  137 166 170 166 165 156

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear to partly cloudy.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 45.
Max humidity........77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light and variable around sunset,
                    then becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph after 0100.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 12 to 22 mph decreasing to 6 to 12
                    mph late in the evening, then shifting to the
                    southwest 6 to 14 mph after 0100.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (121200 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (1900 knot-ft) early in the evening.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........24        14        20        32
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         0
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............67        59        51        48
RH..............28        44        59        68
20 FT wind......NW 12G19  NW 6G9    W 5G7     SW 7G11
Mix hgt (ft)....7500      700       400       400
Transport wind..NW 22     NW 10     W 6       SW 10
Haines index....6         5         4         5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..143       6         2         3

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy.
CWR.................Less than 5 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 76.
Min humidity........28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest west 6 to 12 mph becoming west winds 10 to 16 mph
                    with gusts near 22 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 14 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (102800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to very good (120400
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........28        32        61        49
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         0
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         10
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............47        57        69        76
RH..............76        64        42        28
20 FT wind......SW 10G14  W 13G19   W 16G21   W 16G21
Mix hgt (ft)....400       700       3600      6800
Transport wind..W 14      W 16      W 22      W 23
Haines index....5         5         5         6
Dispr kt-ft/1K..5         10        69        135

$$
Forecaster...ANGLIN
Requested by...Calvin
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413666.0/BIS
.DELDT 05/10/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL calvin_moldenhauer@fws.gov