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000
FXUS65 KBOI 180259
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
859 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.DISCUSSION...Winds are already subsiding this evening and will
become light by midnight. Clouds and isolated showers over the
northern mountains are diminishing with skies becoming clear
overnight. The clearing skies and light winds will allow for
cold temperatures Thursday morning as sub-freezing lows are
expected in most locations, including the Treasure Valley. High
temperatures are expected to be a few degrees below normal. A
dry northwest flow aloft will remain over the area on Thursday.
No updates.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with mostly clear skies. Surface winds: N-W
5-15kt with gusts to 25 kt, except in the Snake Plain KMUO-
KTWF/KJER sustained 20 kt and gusts to 35 kt through 02Z this
evening, then diminishing to 10 kt or less by Thu/06Z. Winds
aloft at 10kft MSL: N 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR with clear skies. NW winds 5-10 kt this evening,
then becoming SE Thu morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night...The region will
remain on the western edge of a broad upper trough centered over
the Upper Midwest through Friday. Energy moving around the
periphery of the trough will track through the ID panhandle,
including a wave on Thursday that will keep clouds and a 10-15%
chance of precipitation across Valley County. The upper trough
begins to shift eastward on Friday, bringing dry weather to all
areas. Tonight will see freezing temperatures at most sites,
including across the lower Snake Plain where the chance for a
freeze is 60-80% west of Mountain Home and greater than 80% from
Mountain Home to Twin Falls and Jerome. Friday morning will be
cool again with a frost possible in these same areas. High
temperatures will warm to near normal on Friday.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...An upper level ridge
axis will move over the area during a warm Saturday, resulting
in SW flow aloft Sat afternoon/evening. This, combined with a
short wave trough speeding by to our north, will bring a chance
(10-30%) of showers Sat night into Sun morning across the north.
Weak ridging across the PacNW Sunday and Monday will keep us
dry and give us a notable warming trend Sun/Mon. Temps should
be around 10 degrees above normal Saturday, 5 above Sun, then
back to 10 above Mon. SW flow aloft will return Tue, bringing
another increase in moisture and even warmer temperatures. A
slight chance of showers Tue (10-20%) will increase Wed
(15-30%) as temps cool a couple of degrees due to increased
cloud cover. Model guidance is in above-average agreement for
the long term period, and therefore this is a relatively high-
confidence forecast for this time range.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....BW
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....SP