Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
714
FNUS75 KBOU 010929
FWSBOU
Spot Forecast for Forsythe II Rx - Unit 44...USFS
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
329 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...A cold front will bring a wind shift to the northeast
this afternoon (around 1400 hours) and help produce rain showers
and perhaps a thunderstorm. Rain showers will be likely this
evening before it moves off to the east. Wind direction is quite
uncertain late this afternoon and evening due to outflow winds
from the showers and storms. Dry conditions are expected late
tonight and Thursday.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent) until 1200, then
mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
after 1200 until 1500, then rain showers likely
and chance of thunderstorms.
CWR.................1 percent increasing to 20 percent in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3 until 1500, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 59.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Variable up to 5 mph until 0900, then south 5
to 13 mph until 1100, then southwest 8 to 13
mph until 1400, then northeast 8 to 14 mph.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms after 1200.
Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL until 0900, then 3100 ft AGL
until 1100, then 7000 ft AGL until 1600, then
4200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 16 mph until 1100, then west 17
to 26 mph until 1700, then around 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1000, then fair until 1100, then
very good until 1200, then excellent until
1300, then very good until 1500, then good
until 1700, then fair.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........37 32 24 20 25 29 58 58 60 71 73 78
Weather cov..... CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20 20 20
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 40 40 40 60 60 60
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 4 4 4
Temp............37 39 43 48 52 56 58 59 58 56 54 51
RH..............67 62 57 49 43 35 33 32 34 40 45 50
20 FT wind dir..SW W S S SW SW W W NE NE NE E
20 FT wind spd..5 2 2 7 8 9 12 10 10 9 9 9
20 FT wind gust.7 3 3 12 13 15 17 17 16 15 15 15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.9 2.0 3.2 6.3 7.6 7.1 6.7 5.4 4.2 3.1
Transp wind dir.SW W W W SW W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.9 8 8 13 16 23 26 24 21 18 17 16
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4 4 7 22 45 127 174 149 120 86 63 44
SmokeDispersion.P P P P F VG E VG VG G G F
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) until 2400, then
partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Rain showers,
snow showers likely and chance of thunderstorms
until 2400, then slight chance of snow showers.
CWR.................34 percent decreasing to 6 percent.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................4 until 2100, then 3 until 2400, then 2 until
0300, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 29.
Max humidity........76 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 11 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1200 ft AGL until 2100, then Below 1000 FT AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........83 83 83 83 69 57 45 41 34 28 24 16
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RS RS RS SW SW SW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............30 30 30 30 30 20 10 10 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).70 70 70 60 50 40 20 20 10 10 10 10
LAL.............4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1
Temp............48 45 43 40 38 37 36 35 34 32 31 29
RH..............56 62 67 73 76 72 72 69 69 69 69 72
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..9 9 9 9 9 9 7 8 8 9 9 9
20 FT wind gust.15 14 14 15 14 14 12 13 13 14 15 15
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 1.8 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.14 13 10 13 16 15 12 13 12 12 13 14
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..27 20 9 8 12 8 6 7 6 6 6 7
SmokeDispersion.P P P P P P P P P P P P
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (10-20 percent) until 1200, then
partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
thunderstorms and rain showers after 1200.
CWR.................6 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 51.
Min humidity........27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 12 to 17 mph. Gusts up to 27 mph
early in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms after 1200.
Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL until 0800. 8400 ft AGL after
1200.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 18 mph until 0800, then 23 to 32
mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0800, then good until 0900, then
very good until 1100, then excellent.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........13 13 13 13 16 21 50 50 50 50 50 50
Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20 20
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2
Temp............29 31 35 39 42 44 46 48 50 50 50 49
RH..............75 69 56 46 42 36 32 30 27 27 28 29
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..12 12 13 13 14 15 16 16 16 16 16 15
20 FT wind gust.18 18 21 21 22 24 25 25 25 25 25 24
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.9 3.1 4.4 5.1 6.1 7.1 7.6 8.1 8.7 8.2 7.6
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.14 16 23 30 30 31 31 31 32 32 30 26
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..7 13 62 115 133 161 191 208 226 243 209 178
SmokeDispersion.P P G VG VG E E E E E E E
$$
Forecaster...Meier
Requested by...Luke Finn
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412828.0/BOU
.DELDT 05/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL luke.finn@usda.gov