Text Products for FWS Issued by BTV

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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FNUS71 KBTV 230845
FWSBTV

Spot Forecast for Norton Farm Road Rx Fire...Green Mountain National Forest
National Weather Service Burlington VT
445 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0400 EDT on April 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (802) 658-0207, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Dry conditions will prevail with abundant sunshine, today.
Nocturnal cooling had brought the relative humidity to 60 to 70
percent. However, relative humidity is already falling early this
morning as south winds are now bringing in higher temperatures
without much moisture. Temperatures will warm to around 60 at the
site, and this should result in relative humidities falling into
the mid 20 percent range. Based on partial sheltering, eye level
winds are expected to reach about 7 to 12 mph this afternoon.
About 7 PM, increasing moisture will bring relative humidity
values up, and then rain is likely to move into the region beyond
midnight. Rainfall amounts around a quarter to a third of an inch
is expected to fall near the site by Wednesday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Begin/end of pcpn...
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 16 mph increasing to around 17
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......6100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 21 mph shifting to the southwest 22
                    to 29 mph late in the morning.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........15     21     21     19     17     45
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............29     36     45     53     58     60
RH..............69     61     45     33     27     26
20 ft wind......S 7    S 10   S 14   S 15   S 17   S 17
20 ft wind gust.12     16     22     23     24     25
Mix hgt (ft)....500    900    2300   4500   5700   6000
Transport wind..S 12   S 14   S 21   SW 24  S 26   SW 29
Haines index....5      4      4      4      4      4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain late in the evening. Chance of rain
                    overnight, then rain likely after 3 am.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1.
Begin/end of pcpn...
Min temperature.....Around 43.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 12 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 24 mph decreasing to 13 to 14 mph
                    after 3 am.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........59     74     86     95     98     98
Weather cov.....                     S CHC  CHANCE LIKELY
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      10     20     50     60
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............57     53     50     47     45     44
RH..............31     39     48     56     65     73
20 ft wind......S 15   S 15   S 14   S 14   S 13   S 13
20 ft wind gust.24     21     20     18     17     14
Mix hgt (ft)....4000   800    700    800    700    600
Transport wind..S 24   S 15   S 16   S 17   S 15   S 13
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (55-65 percent). Rain through the day.
                    Snow in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......100 percent.
LAL.................1.
Begin/end of pcpn...
Max temperature.....Around 45.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 9 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    west 9 to 12 mph late in the morning, then
                    shifting to the north 16 to 20 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......3300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 13 mph shifting to the west around
                    13 mph late in the morning, then shifting to
                    the north 16 to 24 mph early in the afternoon
                    increasing to 28 to 31 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........100    100    100    99     96     68
Weather cov.....LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE LIKELY CHANCE
Weather type....RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   SNOW   SNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).70     90     90     90     70     40
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............43     43     44     39     34     31
RH..............79     86     86     92     85     75
20 ft wind......S 10   S 10   SW 9   W 12   N 20   N 20
20 ft wind gust.13     16     15     15     28     29
Mix hgt (ft)....800    1000   1500   1900   2000   2900
Transport wind..S 13   S 13   S 12   N 16   N 24   N 31
Haines index....4      3      3      3      3      3

$$
Forecaster...Haynes
Requested by...LR Silvia
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411768.0/BTV
.DELDT 04/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL eric.hughes@usda.gov,lindsay.r.silvia@usda.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
