National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS61 KBUF 131900
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
300 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Deep low pressure will continue withdrawing northward across
northern Quebec through this evening. This will allow lingering rain
and higher elevation wet snow across north central New York to taper
off...while winds continue to slowly diminish from west to east.
High pressure will then cross the area tonight and bring a brief
interlude of dry weather and lighter winds...before a compact and
fast-moving area of low pressure crosses the area on Sunday and
brings a round of widespread showers along with a few thunderstorms.
In the wake of this system...high pressure will build in Sunday
night and bring a return to drier weather that will then last
through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of this writing...the back edge of the steadier pcpn attendant to
departing low pressure over northern Quebec has reached eastern Lake
Ontario and the far eastern Finger Lakes. This will continue to
steadily push eastward through early this evening...with lingering
light rain/higher elevation wet snow across the far eastern Finger
Lakes and North Country tapering off from west to east. Winds will
also continue a slow west to east diminishing trend through the rest
of the afternoon...before dropping off more markedly with
diminishing insolation/mixing this evening. With METAR/NYS mesonet
observations showing that most of the area is now seeing winds below
advisory criteria...have dropped most of the remaining Wind
Advisories...save for Northern Cayuga/Oswego counties where some
gusts to 50 mph or so will remain possible through late this
afternoon.

In the wake of this departing system...narrow/transient high
pressure will bring a brief period of mainly drier weather and
lighter winds through the first half to two thirds of the night...
before quickly sliding off to our east later on tonight. At the same
time a fast-moving and compact area of low pressure will be dropping
across the Upper Great Lakes...with its attendant warm front snaking
its way southeastward to Lake Ontario and far western New York by
later on in the night. This latter system will bring a northwest to
southeast increase in cloud cover after midnight...and eventually a
chance of showers to western New York late. Meanwhile lows will
range from the mid to upper 30s in most areas to around 40 across
the Niagara Frontier and along the Lake Erie shore.

On Sunday the compact area of low pressure will quickly dive
southeastward across Lake Ontario and New York State...while in the
process bringing a couple rounds of fairly widespread showers. The
first of these will be warm frontal in nature and will focus across
Lake Ontario and adjoining areas during the morning...followed by a
second round along the trailing cold front during the afternoon and
evening. With this second round there looks to be enough weak
instability available to also present the possibility for a few
thunderstorms across western New York...with the greatest potential
for these found across the western Southern Tier. Given the amount
of shear in place...cannot rule out an isolated stronger storm or
two with gusty winds across the Southern Tier Sunday afternoon in
line with the Marginal Risk portrayed in the new SPC Day 2
convective outlook. That being said...the main severe threat with
this system still looks to remain confined to our south in tandem
with the main reservoir of instability. Otherwise...it will be a
milder day with highs ranging from the upper 40s/lower 50s east of
Lake Ontario to the lower to mid 60s across the Southern Tier.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave trough will round the base of the longwave trough spread
across the Northeast Sunday night into Monday. This feature will
support a surface low overhead of southern New England, with its
attendant cold front draped just south of the New York/Pennsylvania
state line. Heading into Sunday night, ongoing showers and
thunderstorms associated with the cold front will continue to push
south following the frontal passage. Thus, expect the chances for
showers to diminish throughout the night. With the lack of support
from diurnal effects, expect thunderstorm chances to decrease as
well shortly after sunset.

Meanwhile, mid-level ridging overhead of the upper Midwest Sunday
night will push overhead of the lower Great Lakes by Tuesday night.
As a result, surface high pressure will spread across the Great
Lakes Monday through Tuesday supporting a couple of days of dry
weather for the start of the new work week. Temperatures will
gradually warm during this time, with highs by Tuesday warming up to
range in the 60s. A few locations along the valleys across the
Southern Tier may climb up towards 70.

The next vigorous southern stream mid-level trough will be lying
over the Central Plains Tuesday night, where it will support another
area of surface low pressure overhead of the southern Nebraska. An
attendant warm front to the surface low will sprawl eastward across
the central Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, just
upstream over the southern portions of the Canadian Rockies the
northern stream trough will lie. As both of these mid-level features
advance east and phase, a complex surface system will lie across the
Upper Mid-West by Wednesday morning, before it advances eastward
across the Great Lakes. Overall, Tuesday night expect increasing
chances for rain showers. By Wednesday morning another round of
soaking rain will be sliding east across the region from west to
east.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
With the now phased mid-level northern and southern stream trough
spread across the upper Midwest Thursday, expect the aforementioned
surface low spread across the Great Lakes to rotate its cold front
across the region Thursday. This will keep the chances for showers
to continue throughout the day Thursday.

The now large mid-level trough will span across the Great Lakes
region into the Northeast Friday into the weekend. This being said,
model guidance continues to remain differed with the strength and
broadness of the mid-level trough. Regardless, with the general
troughing pattern in place, active weather will continue throughout
the end of the work week into the weekend. Additionally, cold air
will begin to filter into the region late in the week which may turn
rain to snow across a few locations of the higher terrain of the
Southern Tier and eastern Lake Ontario regions.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Narrow/transient high pressure and drier air will continue to build
eastward across the area through the rest of this afternoon and this
evening. This will bring an end to any lingering light rain/higher
elevation wet snow across North Central New York...continued
diminishing winds from west to east (particularly as insolation and
mixing drops off early this evening)...and improvement from our
current mix of MVFR/limited VFR conditions to VFR areawide. Once
established...general dry/VFR conditions will then persist until
late tonight...when a warm front attendant to compact low pressure
over the Upper Great Lakes will bring a chance of showers/MVFR
ceilings to far western New York.

On Sunday the compact area of low pressure will quickly dive
southeastward across Lake Ontario and New York State...bringing
increasingly widespread showers...and possibly also a few afternoon
thunderstorms to areas south of Lake Ontario...with the greatest
potential for the latter found across the Southern Tier. As for
flight conditions...these will tend to deteriorate back to MVFR.

Outlook...

Sunday night...Improvement to VFR with leftover showers ending.
Monday...Mainly VFR.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers Tuesday night.
Wednesday and Thursday...MVFR/VFR with showers likely.

&&

.MARINE...
As of this writing gale force winds and Gale Warnings continue on
eastern Lake Ontario...with Small Craft Advisories in effect for
western Lake Ontario...the Upper and Lower Niagara River...and Lake
Erie. Expect gradually improving conditions and diminishing winds
through the rest of this afternoon and tonight as high pressure
builds into the region...which will allow these headlines to
gradually be taken down from west to east.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ005-006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ043>045-
         063>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR