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000
FXUS62 KCAE 180325
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1125 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE PUMPING PLENTY OF
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA WILL COMBINE WITH THE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN BECAUSE OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH SO ANY
ACTIVITY CAN PRODUCE BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY...HEATING...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...AND A SERIES OF UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AGAIN ON TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO
THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION. THE MODELS KEEP BROAD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW
GUIDANCE WITH THE EXPECTED RAIN AND CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS ON
THURSDAY AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LESSENS INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT THERE REMAINS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS AT THIS TIME WILL BE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE NEAR
TERM. CURRENT RADAR INDICATES THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT
MAINLY THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS...INCLUDING AGS/DNL/OGB...OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL EXPECT MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT AFTER AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
CONCERN WILL THEN SHIFT TO ANY FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL. RAINFALL HAS
OCCURRED AT ALL THE TERMINALS AND CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LOW.
HOWEVER...BUFKIT INDICATES A SW 30 TO 35 KT LOW LEVEL JET
TONIGHT...AND SATELLITE SUGGESTS CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER...WHICH WOULD WORK AGAINST FOG
FORMATION. LATEST HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOWER CLOUDS
POSSIBLE WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

AFTER ANY MORNING RESTRICTIONS...EXPECT VFR TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF
SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

NOTE...AGS ASOS OUT OF SERVICE. NO OBSERVATIONS WILL BE AVAILABLE
THERE FROM 03Z-11Z. NO TAF AMENDMENTS ARE SCHEDULED FOR AGS DURING
THAT TIME. AVIATION INTERESTS ARE ADVISED THAT AGS TENDS TO BE A FOG
PRONE LOCATION...ALSO OFTEN EXPERIENCING VARIABLE CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$