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000
FXUS62 KCAE 250630
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
230 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will build in from the northwest today and
provide dry weather for today. There will be a slight chance of
a shower over western areas Friday afternoon. Fair Saturday
through Monday with a warming trend. A cold front is expected to
bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Front has moved east of the area with remaining clouds exiting
the eastern Midlands over the next hour or two. Patchy fog has
developed in the northern Midlands and Pee Dee where the best
rain fell last evening and expect the fog to remain patchy
through daybreak and mainly in areas that received rain.
Otherwise the forecast area will see mostly clear skies which
combined with light and variable winds will allow for good
radiational cooling. Overnight lows will range from the low 50s
in the west to mid 50s in the east.

Upper level trough will slide offshore this morning as the
remains of the front move further south of the area. This will
allow weak high pressure and some upper level height rises to
build into the area today with the frontal remains moving back
toward the area tonight. As the high pressure builds into the
area winds will become northeasterly this morning then turn more
easterly tonight allowing for moisture advection to begin.
Moisture advection will increase tonight as as 850 mb flow
becomes southerly. Although moisture will be increasing do not
expect any showers just low clouds developing and some mid and
upper clouds associated with the remains of the frontal
boundary. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the upper
70s to low 80s with lows tonight in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridging is expected to continue building over the region
on Friday. However, a weak shortwave embedded within the ridge
is forecast to move through the area. Additionally, weak surface
convergence is possible as the frontal boundary wavers through
the day. More models are picking up on the chance for rainfall
during the afternoon due to these features. With the weak
shortwave and surface convergence, only expecting isolated
showers to develop and have expanded a slight chance (~20%) of
showers from the CSRA to the central Midlands to account for
this trend. Temperatures are forecast to be somewhat cooler on
Friday as cloud cover should be over the area for much of the
day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Only minor changes have been noted in the guidance for the long
term period. Surface high pressure remains in control over the
area into the early part of next week. However, some models are
picking up on a disturbance moving around the high pressure and
bringing some precipitation into the forecast area for Sunday.
My confidence is low (~10%) that we`ll see any rain from this,
but will continue to monitor trends in the next few days.
Otherwise, a warming trend is anticipated into the early week
ahead. A system approaches the area midweek, bringing us the
next chance for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Weak front has moved east of the terminals with remaining low
clouds exiting OGB by 07z. Weak high pressure and mostly clear
skies will be over the area today with light northeasterly winds
this morning and afternoon veering to more easterly late in the
period. This will again begin pushing moisture into the area
and result in development of some low clouds around 6 kft from
the afternoon through the end of the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Monday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$