Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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674 FXUS62 KCAE 011811 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 211 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm conditions will continue through Thursday as surface high pressure and upper level ridging build back into the area. Rain chances start to increase Friday as southwesterly low level flow increases and steadily pushes moisture into the region. Showers and thunderstorms are then likely over the weekend as a series of weak disturbances push across the area and moisture continues to build. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure will remain well off the SE US coast with weak flow over the forecast area. Cumulus will continue developing through the afternoon however with dry air in the mid and upper levels see on WV imagery do not expect significant vertical development. Isolated showers currently in Lee and Sumter Counties along a weak differential heating boundary will remain light and move eastward over the next couple hours. With sunset expect the cumulus to dissipate with a mostly clear start to the night. With low level moisture remaining across the area tonight and no low level jet expect fog and stratus to develop during the early morning and sunrise hours. High temperatures remain on track for the low to mid 80s this afternoon with lows tonight in the low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Thursday and Thursday night: Quiet and dry conditions are expected for Thursday and Thursday night as ridging aloft builds and surface high pressure builds just offshore. As a result, afternoon highs will likely be a few degrees warmer than Wednesday, with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s. Seasonably mild overnight lows can also be expected as temperatures drop into the lower 60s. Friday and Friday night: The upper ridge begins to flatten while the axis shifts offshore. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough is forecast to move toward the area and PWAT levels increase during the day to over 1.5". This combination brings an increasing chance of afternoon showers and maybe thunderstorms, mainly for the western portions of the forecast area. CAPE values are forecast to be on the lower side (100-200 J/kg) and shear values are forecast to be around 15 kts, so the severe weather threat is very low. Diurnal temperatures should be similar to Thursday as well. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A more active, summer-like pattern looks to be setting up for the weekend and into the first part of next week. The upper trough is forecast to begin weakening through the weekend with a series of shortwaves moving through the Southeast. These shortwaves bring the chance for daily (mainly) afternoon showers and thunderstorms into the early part of next week. Low-level flow is expected to become southwest, bringing additional moisture to the region. As a result, the risk for stronger storms increases for each afternoon as the instability gradually increases each day. && .AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions through the early morning hours then restrictions in stratus and fog possible. High pressure remains well off the SE Coast with weak flow over the area. Fog and stratus from this morning have mixed out however low level moisture remains as cumulus with limited vertical growth have begun developing. With dry air in the mid and upper levels do not expect any showers in the area however some are possible just east of the terminals to the coast. Main issue through the period will be fog and stratus potential tonight. With moisture remaining in the low levels and no low level jet expected the potential for fog and stratus is high enough to include in TAFs. At fog prone OGB/AGS have included mention of IFR/LIFR around daybreak. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Patchy late night/early morning fog and stratus possible. Increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms along with associated restrictions Friday through Sunday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$