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FXUS62 KCAE 141805
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY IN ITS
WAKE AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV LOOP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST THAT
IS BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS SHOW THE
AIR MASS TO REMAIN QUITE DRY OVERNIGHT EVEN AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE. BOTH NAM/GFS DEVELOP A NICE 25 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP KEEP WINDS UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE
AREA..ESPECIALLY OVER THE WARMER LAKES. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL
TEMPERATURES REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER AND THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. DOWNSLOPE FLOW/SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM UP SIGNIFICANTLY ON
WEDNESDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A LITTLE MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION APPEARS LACKING. MOS GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR REASONABLE...ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SREF.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS APPEAR SIMILAR MOVING A SLOW MOVING/DE-
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS TO THE EAST BY THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND BUT FORCING FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO FOCUS NORTH OF SOUTH CAROLINA
CLOSER TO STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTH
CAROLINA. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC/WEAK LEE
SIDE TROUGH. GFS ENSEMBLE POPS INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY
DIURNAL...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST...WHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OVER OUR REGION BY WEDNESDAY.

DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH CENTER BEGINS
TO SHIFT EAST. BUFKIT DISPLAY INDICATES A SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
STAYING UP TONIGHT. THIS...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL AIR THAT APPEARS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY...PRECLUDES FOG CONCERNS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
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