000
FXUS62 KCAE 160203
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1003 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AHEAD OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY APPROACH
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE SURFACE RIDGE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND
SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE THIN.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE
CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY THURSDAY WILL DE-AMPLIFY
AND TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL WEAKEN WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID- TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION APPEARS LACKING. ALTHOUGH WEAK WARM
ADVECTION NOTED MOS CONSENSUS APPEARS ON THE HIGH SIDE...IN THE
LOWER 90S. WENT SLIGHTLY LOWER DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUDINESS. THERE
WILL BE A MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING
UP ACROSS VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER LOW. THE WEAK LIFT
AND MOISTURE SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS CLOSER TO FRONT AND
AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
MOS CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ENSEMBLE GFS POPS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF. THE FRONT ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA WILL POSSIBLY MOVE FARTHER SOUTH AND COULD SET UP
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
SO WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND THE WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR. EXPECT
THE CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL. FORECASTED ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AIR MASS
SHOULD BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS...AND GFS
AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MS
VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSHING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS TO DEVELOP. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 02Z. WITH
SUNRISE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS SLOWLY
BACKING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO SOUTHERLY BY 20Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$