000
FXUS62 KCAE 160912
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
512 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREAS FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WILL WEAKEN. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE SOUTH FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH AS A FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
WILL DOMINATE TODAY. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SHALLOW AND A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE CAPPING. ALL OF THE MOS
INDICATES POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH IN THE NORTHWEST PART
AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONT TO SUPPORT SHOWERS LATE. FORECASTED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHWEST. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE
DIFFUSE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE NEAR THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF DIFFICULT TO TIME
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. THE NAM AND GFS MOS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POPS 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
LINGERING NEAR THE FORECAST AREA DURING MOST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE AREA.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER NAM AND ECMWF MOS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS. USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LATEST RAPID REFRESH ENSEMBLE NOT
INDICATING FOG ANYWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
...BUT GFS LAMP GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING POSSIBILITY OF MVFR VSBYS
AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB. WILL INCLUDE IN A TEMPO GROUP...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LIMITED GIVEN LATEST TRENDS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 14Z TODAY. A DRY AND CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...SO NO
CONVECTION EXPECTED. SCTD CU WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION
RETURNS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME CHANCES OF LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$