000
FXUS62 KCAE 151318
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
918 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL
BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH HIGHS NEAR 90. USED THE
GFS LAMP FOR THE WIND FORECAST. DEWPOINTS A COUPLE OF DEGREES
LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...IN THE MIDDLE 50S WILL MAKE FOR A VERY
COMFORTABLE DAY. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE
FORECAST STILL REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODEL TIME
SECTIONS SHOW A LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SC/CU WITH DAYTIME HEATING. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MEANWHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL
NUMBERS ARE VERY CLOSE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL STAY NEAR
THE CONSENSUS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
THE CONSENSUS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES
A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN LOOKING AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT THIS FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR/OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH
MENTION OF CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL...PER GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE. USED THE GFS LAMP FOR THE WIND FORECAST. EXPECT MAINLY
LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A MOISTURE INCREASE WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$