Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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846 FXUS61 KCAR 301725 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 125 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure in northern Quebec will extend south into Maine today. Low pressure tracks south of the Gulf of Maine Wednesday. High pressure returns on Thursday while another low pressure passes to the south of the area. High pressure builds into the area Friday and remains across the region into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 125 PM Update: Upper level cloud cover has begun to creep into the forecast area this afternoon, pushing into the Central Highlands and greater Bangor area. Though there remains plenty of mid level dry air, the incoming low pressure system is slowly working on eroding this barrier. Current radar reflectivity shows returns across the North Woods, but this is likely virga with cloud bases remaining above 10kft at this time. Stronger storms seen earlier in VT and NH are pivoting offshore, and this instability is likely to remain outside of our forecast area. Minor adjustments made to sky and temperature forecasts based on current observations and trends. Prev discussion blo... Sfc ridge axis continues to build over the state tonight with temps radiating acrs the north under clear skies. High cirrus is gradually working in fm the west over top of the ridge and while far wrn zones start off partly sunny this morning, mostly sunny conditions are expected into mid- afternoon acrs the east. H8 low pressure and associated lift with warm advection will bring showers to the Central Highlands this evening. Scattered showers are expected tonight, mainly to the south of a Jackman to Houlton line. Mostly likely areas to see rain will be in the Central Highlands toward Downeast tonight. Further to the north, dry air associated with lingering high pressure will keep most of the showers at bay acrs nrn Aroostook. Sfc low will cross south of the Gulf of Maine late tonight with showers winding down toward morning. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A progressive pattern aloft with weak weather disturbances in the flow, but no significant weather systems are expected to affect the area. On Wednesday, one shortwave is forecast to exit to the east of the area early in the morning with surface high pressure to build into the area. Morning clouds will likely give way to a partly sunny afternoon with seasonable temperatures. The ridge remains across the area into Wednesday night as a weak low pressure moves out of Ontario and into western Quebec with an increase in clouds. The weak system crosses the area Thursday with the best chance of showers across the southern half of the FA. During this time an area of low pressure in the Maritimes slowly retrogrades to the west, but moisture from this low should remain north and east of the area. QPF on Thursday will likely not amount to more than one to two tenths of an inch, and the majority of areas even across our southern zones will probably not get a tenth of an inch. Some of the models such as the Canadian would keep the northern half of the FA dry all day. Temperatures Thursday will again be close to average. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... No high impact weather systems are expected into early next week. The region will remain in a bit of a block Thursday night into Friday as low pressure remains east of the area in the Maritimes and a ridge slowly builds toward the area from the west. There will be a continuation of near average temperatures and it should remain mainly dry as any showers from the low in Canada should remain east of the area. Over the weekend, a ridge axis builds into the area on Saturday and begins to move east Sunday. Saturday looks dry and a bit milder, although a seabreeze should keep highs cooler along the coast. Most inland areas should get into the low to mid 60s. As the ridge moves east Sunday there is more of a return flow and there will probably be a bit more in the way of clouds and the chance of a shower, although most areas will remain dry. Highs could get well into the 60s inland, but more of a south flow will keep it cooler along the coast and also prevent it from becoming as warm as it could be if we had more of a downslope flow. Forecast confidence decreases late weekend and early next week, but it appears that a front approaching from the west will bring with it an increasing chance for showers by Sunday night and Monday. && .AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions continue across all terminals through this afternoon. Cigs will begin to lower over Downeast terminals this evening, falling to MVFR overnight tonight as scattered rain showers move through. Northern terminals are expected to remain VFR, but PQI and HUL may briefly dip towards MVFR around 10 to 12z before improving once more. Downeast terminals will be slower to return to VFR Wednesday, and may remain MVFR until late in the afternoon. Winds generally light and variable, with a few lingering northerly gusts at northern terminals late this afternoon. SHORT TERM: Wed night & Thu: Mainly VFR, but MVFR possible, especially at KBGR and KBHB in any showers. E/NE wind around 5 knots. Fri through Sat: VFR with E/NE wind 5 to 10 knots, becoming SE Sat afternoon. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below small craft levels today and tonight. Wind gusts will approach 20kts over the outer waters early this morning before diminishing by mid-morning. SHORT TERM: Both the wind and seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels Wednesday through Saturday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...AStrauser/Buster Short Term...CB Long Term...CB Aviation...AStrauser/Buster/CB Marine...AStrauser/Buster/CB