Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 230724
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
324 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to track east this morning before
high pressure returns over the area by this afternoon which will
persist through Sunday. Another low pressure system approaches
from the west late Monday, moving a warm front north Monday
night followed by an associated cold front Tuesday night. High
pressure returns Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Currently a cold front is making its way east across the area,
resulting in a wintry mix along and east of I71, including in NW
PA. As temperatures continue to hover near freezing ahead of the
boundary, there remains a potential for light freezing rain over
the next couple hours with only a glaze of ice expected. With
fairly warm antecedent conditions, the primary concern for ice
accumulation remains on elevated surfaces such as walkways,
bridges, and overpasses. Shifting to behind the boundary,
temperatures through the vertical have all dropped to below
freezing, resulting in areas of rather efficient snowfall with
accumulation rates up to 1"/hr in the heaviest band. As a result
of these ongoing conditions, a Winter Weather Advisory remains
in effect for NE OH and NW PA until 8AM and a Special Weather
Statement has been issued for the remaining counties east of I71
for the potential of slick roads and heavier bursts of snow.

Near 12Z this morning, all precipitation should shift east as
high pressure dives southeast over the area. This high will
quickly return a dry airmass to the area and will slowly erode
the clouds throughout the day. The biggest question lingering
with this system is any potential for lake enhanced snow across
northern Ohio and northerly winds set up over Lake Erie and cold
850mb temperatures push south. For now have opted to leave any
chance of this out purely because model soundings all suggest a
mid-level dry layer quickly pushing in, which should cut off any
lake enhanced potential. At most, wouldn`t be surprised to see a
few flurries in the higher terrain across the snowbelt, but
don`t expect to see any accumulation if that does occur. This
high pressure system will remain in place through Sunday. Highs
today will climb into the mid 30s to low 40s with the warmest
temperatures out west. Overnight lows will drop into the low to
mid 20s with more seasonal highs returned on Sunday as
temperatures climb into the low to mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
We will still be under the influence of high pressure centered near
the Canadian Maritimes Sunday night ridging down into the Upper Ohio
Valley and Mid-Atlantic regions.  A stronger low pressure system
will track from the Central Plains on Monday into the Upper Midwest
and western Great Lakes region by Monday night into Tuesday. There
will be strong southerly flow ahead of this system early next week,
especially on Monday with warm air advection. High temperatures will
climb into the lower and middle 60s on Monday. Clouds and low level
moisture will also increase Monday into Monday night. Rain showers
will increase over western Ohio late Monday night and spread
eastward across the area on Tuesday. The weather looks breezy and
wet for Tuesday into Tuesday night across the area. A trailing cold
front from the low pressure system tracking through the western and
northern Great Lakes region will sweep through from west to east
across the area late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure over the central U.S. and Midwest will build in across
the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. The airmass behind the cold frontal
passage will be Pacific origin which means our temperatures will be
somewhat near seasonable levels mid to late week. High pressure
moves across the Ohio Valley on Friday. Another low pressure system
will track through the Central Plains and Upper Midwest by next
Saturday putting our region in the warmer sector again. Temperatures
will climb back upwards to the upper 50s to mid 60s by Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Quite a mix bag of conditions being observed across the area
tonight as a cold front approaches from the west and has
resulted in widespread precipitation. The bulk of terminals have
fallen to IFR conditions tonight, although along and east of I71
some terminals have ceilings that are at LIFR heights. Coming
along with diminished aviation conditions are a wide range of
precipitation types that are falling across the area. To try and
lay this out, the only areas seeing all snow at this point are
any terminals in far NW OH. The remainder of the terminals are
primarily seeing rain, although with temperatures hovering near
freezing there have been reports of a light glaze of ice
accumulation primarily along and east of I71 and as a result
have opted to maintain a freezing rain/snow mix for those
terminals. The concerns with ice will linger over the next
couple hours before all precipitation changes over the snow late
tonight (between 8-9Z). This front will quickly move east of
the area this morning, allowing all precipitation to cease by
12Z Saturday. This will mark the gradual improvement in overall
conditions with all terminals rebounding to VFR by this
afternoon.

Winds tonight will remain out of the northeast at 6-12 knots.
Near 10Z tonight, as the front passes east, winds behind the
boundary will shift to become northerly at 10-15 knots with
gusts up to 25 knots possible by late morning. Near sunset this
evening, northerly winds will weaken to 5-10 knots across the
area.

Outlook...Non-VFR in clouds possible through Saturday afternoon
and non-VFR possible in rain showers Tuesday into early
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure moves up the East Coast into the New England region
today. Northerly winds 15-20 knots and higher waves will last
through this evening. A small craft advisory is in effect for these
conditions through this evening. High pressure builds in late
tonight into Sunday before departing to the east Sunday night. Winds
will be lighter 10 to 15 knots tonight and Sunday. Winds become
easterly Sunday night and possibly increase up to 20 knots for a
period of time, especially in the western basin. We will have to
watch this timeframe for another SCA possible. Winds become
southeasterly Monday through Tuesday 15 to 20+ knots. A cold front
will move across the lake late Tuesday night which a wind shift from
the west-southwest by early Wednesday morning. High pressure will
build in from the west late Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for
     OHZ012>014-089.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for
     PAZ001>003.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ142-
     143.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ144>148.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Campbell
MARINE...Griffin


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