696
FXUS64 KCRP 011914
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
Issued by National Weather Service Melbourne FL
214 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1053 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

KCRP 12Z sounding analysis indicates increasing moisture across the
area with an observed PWAT of 1.76" (90th percentile). An observed
surface CAPE value of ~3,400 J/kg and DCAPE ~1,000 J/kg could
support strong to marginally severe storms this afternoon. However,
the threat continues to remain conditional due to an apparent
inversion at 850mb and a warm layer observed between 850-700 mb. SPC
has brought a Marginal Risk of severe storms slightly southward, now
extending across portions of northern counties on a line from La
Salle to Victoria. A Slight Risk now extends across far northeastern
Victoria county. 12Z hrrr guidance suggests the greatest
initialization of showers and storms along a line of La Salle to
Aransas counties with greatest coverage occurring generally after
18Z. The greatest localized hazards with any stronger storms
which are able to develop include large hail, strong to damaging
wind gusts, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, and heavy
downpours. Have multiple ways to receive warnings this afternoon,
especially across central and northern locations, in the event
storm intensify and become severe.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

MVFR CIGs continue at the TAF sites though some improvement to
CIGs is expected as cloud cover begins to thin from ALI to CRP and
VCT. Isolated SHRA/TSRA are forecast to begin in the next few
hours, delayed some by lingering clouds early this afternoon.
TEMPOs/AMDs may be needed as any TS approach the sites, mainly
from KCOT to KVCT. Breezy to gusty winds continue closer to the
coast (around 15 kt with gusts near 25 kt).

Storms may linger after 09z and approach VCT closer to 12z Thu. If
this scenario is realized, additional changes to the TAF will be
necessary, but confidence remains low at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 203 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Moderate onshore winds will result in seas increasing to 3 to 5
feet by Thursday. Winds and seas are then forecast to decrease
through Friday. A mainly weak to moderate onshore flow will
persist through the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    75  87  76  89 /  10  10   0   0
Victoria          74  87  73  87 /  30  20  10  10
Laredo            76  95  75  98 /  20  10   0  20
Alice             74  90  74  92 /  20  20   0  10
Rockport          75  85  75  85 /  10  10  10   0
Cotulla           75  92  75  97 /  30  20   0  20
Kingsville        75  88  75  90 /  10  20   0  10
Navy Corpus       76  85  77  86 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ245-
     342>347-442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Law
AVIATION...Schaper