Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 240914
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
414 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Key Messages:

- Windy conditions expected across the area today, especially over
  the southern Coastal Bend.

- High risk for rip currents in effect through tonight.

- Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions likely Monday
  afternoon through Monday evening.

Southwesterly flow aloft can be expected throughout the period as
an upper level trough forms into a low as it traverses across the
Southern/Central Plains on Monday. At the lower levels, a low
will deepen as it enters the Southern Plains today, allowing for a
tighter pressure gradient to develop over the area leading to
windy conditions today. With frequent gusts to 40 MPH expected
across the southern Coastal Bend, a Wind Advisory remains in
effect through this evening. As the pressure gradient relaxes
overnight, winds will weaken to moderate levels past midnight.
However, the flow will re-strengthen across the Brush Country on
Monday as a dryline/frontal boundary drifts through the region.
Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely to
develop, therefore a Fire Weather Watch has been issued (see Fire
Weather Discussion below for more information).

Ahead of the boundary, PWATs are progged to briefly increase to
around 1.4-1.5 inches over portions of the Victoria Crossroads
Monday morning. The combination of the available moisture, weak
instability and some weak impulses in the southwesterly flow aloft
will allow for a few showers and thunderstorms to impact the area
with rain chances generally less than 30%. Very dry conditions
will follow the dryline/boundary Monday afternoon with PWATs
falling to below half an inch at most locations.

As a result of the strong southeasterly flow developing offshore
today, a High risk of rip currents will exist across the Gulf-
facing beaches of the Middle Texas Coast. These conditions are
likely to persist overnight, before improving on Monday as the
winds gradually become offshore during the day with the
approaching boundary.

High temperatures will run in the mid 70s to upper 80s range
today, and in the low to mid 80s on Monday. Overnight lows will
run from the mid 60s inland to the low 70s along the coast
tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Overall, not much change with this long term forecast update. By
Monday night, a boundary will be well offshore with much drier air
left in it`s wake. As the upper trough lifts across the Plains,
another cold front will be sent our way. This boundary looks to
arrive late Monday through Tuesday morning. With very little
moisture to work with, not expecting any precip during FROPA. The
upper trough slides east by the middle of the week as ridging begins
to build in. At the surface, high pressure will remain on control
through the work week. It will gradually nudge east by
Thursday/Friday which will allow for onshore flow to return.

Taking a look at our temps, we will have a few cool mornings in the
wake of the front with lows dropping into the upper 40s to upper
50s. Highs top out in the mid 70s to around 80 through the middle of
the week. Once onshore flow returns, a warming trend will kick in.
Temps look to rebound back into the low 80s to mid 90s by next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Continue to expect a transition, during the approximately 09-15z
Sunday period, from VFR to predominate MVFR ceilings. Expect this
MVFR condition to then persist areawide through early afternoon.
Afterward, MVFR conditions persist over the Coastal Plains,
including the VCT, CRP, and ALI terminals, yet VFR conditions
expected to develop west, including the LRD and COT terminals.
Generally weak to moderate onshore flow overnight. Non-convective
LLWS anticipated over the ALI terminal generally 09-13z Sunday.
Expect breezy/windy onshore flow to develop areawide by mid
morning Sunday, then continue through the afternoon. Expect wind
speeds to decrease during the 00-06z Monday period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

A strong south to southeasterly flow will develop across the
coastal waters this morning, and will persist through Monday
afternoon. This will lead to elevated seas and Small Craft
Advisory conditions. Winds are expected to shift to the west to
northwest and weaken to moderate levels late Monday afternoon as a
frontal boundary approaches the region. Isolated showers will be
possible ahead of the boundary on Monday. A weak to moderate
northeasterly flow will develop in the wake of a cold front
Tuesday morning. A brief period of Small Craft Advisory conditions
may develop over the offshore waters Tuesday morning as the
boundary moves through. A weak to moderate flow will vary from the
east to northeast through much of the work week. By
Thursday/Friday, onshore flow returns.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Gusty south to southeasterly winds can be expected across South
Texas today, with a few gusts to near 40 MPH across the southern
Coastal Bend. However, minimum relative humidity values will
remain above fire weather criteria through tonight, negating any
fire weather concerns. A dryline/boundary will move across the
region on Monday leading to strong winds and low minimum relative
humidity values across portions of the Brush Country. A Fire
Weather Watch is now in effect for La Salle and Webb counties
Monday afternoon through Monday evening as Elevated to Critical
fire weather conditions are likely to develop.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  69  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          76  67  81  52 /   0  20  30   0
Laredo            88  65  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             83  67  86  53 /   0  10   0   0
Rockport          76  67  84  59 /   0  10  10   0
Cotulla           85  64  85  53 /  10  10   0   0
Kingsville        81  68  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       78  70  86  61 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for TXZ229-239.

     Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ242-243-342-343-442.

     High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Monday
     morning for TXZ345-442-443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM CDT Monday
     for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM CDT Monday
     for GMZ270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANM/88
LONG TERM....TC/95
AVIATION...WC


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