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000
FXUS61 KCTP 150229
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1029 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-Showers and storms tapering off just after Midnight
-Continued mild with no rainfall expected Monday-Tuesday
-Cooler temperature trend mid to late week with periods of rain

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Late evening update.

Threat of severe is over. Still some heavy downpours, as
southward movement has slowed the last few hours. Input
from MARFC suggest we can take some more rain.

Thus the main change was to lower current temperatures and
projected temperatures some more, given that the showers
and storms have cooled down the temperatures across the
southeast now. Ended up being the warmest day of the early
Spring season so far.

Still a few showers now and then along the NY border,
with some storms as far north as Interstate 80.

Earlier discussion below.

Weakening line of storms moving southeast as of 730 PM.

Main thing driving severe storms is a combination of fast
movement and rain falling into a very warm and low dewpoint
airmass. Dewpoints most of the afternoon were around 48 degrees,
but some dewpoints noted late afternoon in the upper 30s.

Anyway, several reports of wind gust to 48 knots.

Expect most of the showers and storms to be south of our
area by Midnight.

Main threat is strong winds, and perhaps some small hail.

It has been wet lately, but so far speed of storms has
kept rainfall amts down.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Late evening update.

Adjusted temperatures down some through 13Z Monday.

More information below.

I did edge temperatures up a bit on Monday, given current
guidance.

Earlier discussion below.

High pressure and low pwat air will bring fair and dry weather
for early this week. Daytime highs remain mild for this time of
year in the 60-75F range. Lows will trend warmer night/night
from 35-45F Monday night to 45-55F Tuesday night. Forecast
soundings on Monday show drier air aloft, with some potential of
mixing down towards the sfc, thus have continued to lean towards
lower dewpoints in this timeframe.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A mild but wet week in store for much of the upcoming week.

A cold front moves east of the area by Monday. An area of
weak high pressure gives way to warm front on Wednesday,
followed by an occluded front on Thursday.

Main change to this section is cooler temperatures for
Wednesday into Thursday, we had in the fcst earlier.

After Thursday, several secondary cold fronts will move across
the area with cooler temperatures by late week. While the
showers will likely end by the start of the weekend, there
will be the potential for colder temperatures and frost by
then. Inserted patchy frost into the fcst for late Friday
night across the north.

No real signal for a 3 day period of much needed dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Line of thunderstorms oriented west to east through the central
airspace late this evening will slide slowly southeast through
04Z. Storms are generally weakening and affecting KUNV at this
time with limited impacts. Most likely next impacts would be
KMDT/KLNS and secondarily KJST/KAOO.

Breezy-to-gusty winds will before decreasing overnight after
the cold frontal passage. LLWS remains possible along the
Alleghenies (JST/AOO/UNV) between 00Z-06Z Monday before becoming
less of a factor later in the overnight period.

Outlook...
Mon-Tue...Predominantly VFR.

Tue PM...Thickening clouds, light rain and possible
restrictions developing.

Wed-Fri...SHRA/PM TSRA with brief restrictions expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Martin
NEAR TERM...Martin
SHORT TERM...Martin/NPB
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Banghoff/Gartner/NPB